arXiv:2607.04389cs.AIcs.GT2026-07被引 1

用博弈机制让多个大模型自主加权预测,既防作弊又提准度。

Decentralized Aggregation of LLM Predictions via Wagering Mechanisms

论文配图:Decentralized Aggregation of LLM Predictions via Wagering Mechanisms
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 模型自报预测和赌注,用赌注大小决定权重
  • 在多种测试中性能媲美集中式方法,且能应对私有信息
  • 适合需去中心化、防策略操纵的多模型协作场景

越来越多场景需要聚合多个具备领域专长或私有数据/工具的大语言模型(LLM)的预测以提升集体表现。在去中心化环境下,聚合权重需在不访问模型私有信息的前提下确定,且要抵御策略性报告。本文提出一类优势对齐的博弈聚合机制(WALLA):每个模型报告预测与学习得到的赌注,预测按赌注加权聚合。WALLA 在净收益函数中引入留一法基线,实现三项优势:(1)在任意信念结构下,预测报告具有占优策略激励相容性;(2)优势-赌注对齐,最优赌注与模型预期得分优势成正比;(3)预测无关的赌注优化,支持去中心化学习赌注策略,无需依赖最优预测。我们进一步设计两种变体,在正常性和无套利间权衡,同时保证机制最坏情况下的亏损有界。在问答与预测基准上,针对异构模型与私有信息设置的实验表明,WALLA 在预测性能上达到集中式方法水平,同时实现去中心化学习、优势对齐权重、不确定性感知及激励兼容预测。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

It is increasingly common to aggregate predictions from multiple LLMs, each with domain expertise or access to private tools and data, to improve collective prediction performance. In decentralized settings, aggregation weights need to be determined without access to models' private information and should remain robust to strategic reporting. We propose a family of advantage-aligned wagering mechanisms for LLM aggregation (WALLA), in which each model reports a prediction and a learned wager, and predictions are aggregated using wagers as weights. WALLA introduces a leave-one-out baseline into the net payout function, yielding three desirable properties: (1) dominant-strategy incentive compatibility of prediction under arbitrary belief structure, (2) advantage--wager alignment, where the optimal wager is proportional to the model's expected score advantage, and (3) prediction-agnostic wager optimization, enabling decentralized learning of wager policies without requiring optimal predictions. We further instantiate two mechanism variants that trade off normality and no-arbitrage while maintaining a bounded worst-case deficit for the mechanism. Experiments on question-answering and forecasting benchmarks across heterogeneous models and private-information settings show that WALLA matches centralized aggregation methods in predictive performance, while simultaneously achieving decentralized learning, advantage-aligned aggregation weights, uncertainty awareness, and incentive-compatible prediction.

多模型聚合去中心化博弈机制大模型协作

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