arXiv:2607.04862cs.LG2026-07

用站点与格点数据联合监督,提升极端降水预报精度。

Enhancing the Forecasting Capability of Multi-Model Blending Algorithms for Extreme Precipitation via Joint Use of Station and Gridded Observations

  • 分两阶段:先分类概率,再重建数值,融合六种气象模型。
  • 对强降雨(≥50mm)威胁评分提升38.4%,极端事件(≥100mm)TS超0.1。
  • 可纠正系统性雨带偏移,适合防灾预警场景使用。

准确预报极端降水对灾害减缓至关重要,但数值天气预报(NWP)模型常存在强度低估和空间位移问题。传统多模型融合算法基于像素加权融合,易导致降水范围扩大和极端值平滑。本文提出一种基于U-Net的两阶段框架:概率分类后进行数值重建,并引入2411个中国国家级气象站与格点观测联合监督机制,通过损失函数同时约束空间结构与峰值强度。在2025年汛期独立样本评估中,模型显著优于单一NWP及现有业务产品。对于≥50 mm的暴雨,威胁评分(TS)较最优单个NWP提升38.4%;对于受温带气旋与副高驱动的极端事件(≥100 mm),TS成功提升至0.1以上,使预报具备实际应用价值。此外,模型具备数据驱动的空间校正能力,有效纠正系统性雨带偏移。站点观测的引入使暴雨TS提升10.4%,并有效平衡偏差。结果表明,多源联合监督能显著提升极端降水捕捉能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate extreme precipitation forecasting is critical for disaster mitigation but remains challenging for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models due to systemic intensity underestimation and spatial displacement. Traditional precipitation multi-model blending algorithms perform pixel-by-pixel blending on the forecast field based on weights, which may lead to the expansion of precipitation areas and the smoothing of extreme values. This study proposes an U-Net based two-stage framework: probability classification followed by value reconstruction, to blend forecasts from six major NWP models. A novel station-grid joint supervision mechanism is introduced by integrating observations from 2411 national meteorological stations in China into the loss function, simultaneously constraining spatial structures and peak intensities. Evaluations using independent samples from the 2025 flood season demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms both individual NWPs and current operational products. For rainstorms (>=50 mm), the Threat Score (TS) improved by 38.4% compared to the best NWP. Notably, for extreme events (>=100 mm) driven by extratropical cyclones and the subtropical high, the model successfully elevated the TS to above 0.1, transforming forecasts from having negligible reference value into those with certain operational utility. Furthermore, the model exhibits data-driven spatial correction capabilities, effectively realigning systematic rainbelt displacements with actual precipitation centers. The inclusion of station observations specifically enhanced the TS for rainstorms by 10.4% and effectively balanced the Bias. These results highlight the efficacy of multi-source joint supervision in enhancing the capture of extreme precipitation events.

极端降水多模型融合联合监督预报优化

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