解决气候模型未来预测偏差问题,提升高分辨率气候模拟精度。
Domain-Adaptive Climate Downscaling Under Temporal Distribution Shift

- 结合历史数据重建与未来分布对齐,实现时间域自适应下采样。
- 在强时间分布偏移下,性能优于传统统计与深度学习方法。
- 尤其改善高海拔和地形复杂区的模拟效果,适合气候预测研究者。
基于深度学习的气候下采样旨在从历史低分辨率(LR)与高分辨率(HR)气候数据中学习关系,生成高分辨率气候投影。然而,该方法面临时间分布外推(OOD)挑战:训练于历史数据的模型常被用于未来投影,而未来分布可能与训练期显著不同。本研究以美国大陆每日温度下采样为例,考察时间OOD偏移问题。提出一种时间域自适应下采样框架,结合历史数据上的监督式高分辨率重建与历史-未来气候分布之间的域对齐。在多个未来验证期内的实验表明,所提方法始终优于统计及深度学习偏差校正方法,且在时间分布偏移最强时提升最显著。空间分析显示,高海拔与地形复杂区域改善更明显,时空相关性更高。极端值分析表明,域适应还能降低上尾温度偏差。结果表明,时间域适应可增强非平稳气候条件下高分辨率气候投影的鲁棒性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Deep-learning-based climate downscaling aims to learn relationships from historical low-resolution (LR) and high-resolution (HR) climate data to generate HR climate projections. However, this setting faces a temporal out-of-distribution (OOD) challenge: models trained on historical data are commonly applied to future projections whose distributions may differ substantially from the training period. This study investigates temporal OOD shift for daily temperature downscaling over the Continental United States using paired LR-HR model simulations. We propose a temporal domain-adaptive downscaling framework that combines supervised HR reconstruction on historical data with domain alignment between historical and future climate distributions. Experiments across future validation periods show that the proposed domain-adaptive model consistently outperforms statistical and deep-learning-based bias-correction methods, with the largest gains occurring when the temporal distribution shift is strongest. Spatial analyses indicate stronger improvements over high-elevation and topographically complex regions, along with higher spatiotemporal correlation with the HR target. The extreme analysis shows that domain adaptation also reduces upper-tail temperature bias relative to the non-adaptive model. These results demonstrate that temporal domain adaptation can improve the robustness of HR climate projections under non-stationary climate conditions.
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