让生成的电力调度场景更贴近实际决策,降低运营成本。
Decision-Focused Scenario Generation and Selection for Efficient and Robust Grid Dispatch

- 根据调度成本反向优化场景生成,而非仅追求历史数据拟合
- 在不同模型上实现0.80%-2.02%的运营成本降低
- 适用于各类生成模型,适合电力系统优化研究者
柔性负荷与可再生能源带来的不确定性增加,使分布鲁棒优化(DRO)成为电力系统调度的重要工具。DRO依赖预测场景构建模糊集,但传统场景生成方法以精度为导向,常忽略不确定性间的空间相关性,导致生成的模糊集虽统计合理,却对下游运行不优。本文提出一种面向决策的联合场景生成与选择框架,不只拟合历史不确定性分布,而是优化生成场景以最小化其引发的调度成本。该框架适配变分自编码器、生成对抗网络和扩散模型等主流生成模型,能捕捉各母线间不确定性的联合分布。为提升计算效率,进一步设计可微分场景选择器,从生成池中筛选与决策相关的场景,并在同一流程中训练。案例研究表明,相比精度导向方法,本框架在不同生成模型下均有效降低0.80%-2.02%的运营成本。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The increasing uncertainty from flexible demand and renewable generation has made distributionally robust optimization (DRO) an important tool for robust power system dispatch. DRO relies on forecast scenarios to construct ambiguity sets, but conventional scenario generation pipelines are often trained in an accuracy-oriented manner and may neglect spatial correlations among uncertainties. This mismatch can produce ambiguity sets that are statistically plausible but suboptimal for downstream operation. This work proposes a decision-focused generative framework for correlated scenario generation in DRO-based dispatch. Instead of training generative models solely to fit the historical uncertainty distribution, the proposed framework optimizes generated scenarios according to their induced downstream operational cost. The proposed framework is tailored to mainstream generative models, including variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, and diffusion models, while capturing the joint distribution of uncertainties across buses. To improve computational tractability, we further develop a differentiable scenario selector that selects decision-relevant scenarios from a generated pool and can be trained within the same decision-focused pipeline. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively reduces 0.80%-2.02% operational cost across different generative models compared to accuracy-oriented methods.
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