arXiv:2607.05908cs.LG2026-07

不同神经网络架构对时间分布漂移的鲁棒性差异显著,预训练模型更稳定。

Drift Happens: An Empirical Study of Neural Architecture Robustness to Temporal Distribution Shift

论文配图:Drift Happens: An Empirical Study of Neural Architecture Robustness to Temporal Distribution Shift
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用时间漂移矩阵统一评估模型在不同时期的表现
  • 局部特征强的模型精度高但退化快,全局特征模型更抗漂移
  • 为实际部署系统选型提供架构鲁棒性参考

真实世界数据分布随时间演变,引发时间分布漂移,严重影响已部署机器学习系统的可靠性。然而,架构选择及其归纳偏置对时间鲁棒性的影响尚不明确。我们针对图像分类、多标签文本分类和文本回归三个异构时间序列任务,系统比较了多种模型的时间鲁棒性。基于时间漂移矩阵的统一评估框架,我们在累积历史数据上训练模型,并在早期与后期时间周期评估其性能,量化跨时期泛化能力。研究涵盖从简单多层感知机、卷积网络到循环网络及预训练Transformer编码器的多种模型家族。结果表明:归纳偏置引导模型利用局部、高度判别性特征的模型,虽在分布内精度最高,但这些特征随时间变化最快,导致模型退化最快;而依赖更粗粒度、更稳定表征的预训练编码器则表现出更缓慢的漂移。该发现为应对时间漂移的实际系统架构选型提供了实用指导。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Real-world data distributions evolve over time, inducing temporal distribution shift that can substantially degrade the reliability of deployed machine learning systems. However, the extent to which architectural choices and their associated inductive biases affect temporal robustness remains insufficiently understood. We present a systematic empirical comparison of temporal robustness across three heterogeneous, time-indexed domains encompassing image classification, multi-label text classification, and text regression tasks. Using a unified evaluation framework based on temporal drift matrices, we train models on cumulative historical data and evaluate their performance on both earlier and later time periods, thereby quantifying cross-temporal generalization. Our study spans model families ranging from simple multilayer perceptrons and convolutional networks to recurrent networks and pretrained Transformer-based encoders. Collectively, the results show that architectural inductive biases systematically shape temporal robustness: models whose inductive biases lead them to exploit localized, highly discriminative features attain the highest in-distribution accuracy, yet those features are often the ones that change most over time, so these models degrade fastest, while pretrained encoders that draw on coarser, more stable representations drift more gradually. These observations offer practical guidance for selecting architectures for real-world systems subject to temporal drift.

时间漂移模型鲁棒性架构比较

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