提出可将预测准确度转化为盈利的投注策略,解决市场中高手反亏的悖论。
When do prophets profit in prediction markets?

- 设计仅依赖预测和市价的正则投注策略,确保准确预测即能盈利。
- 实证显示该策略在数千次AI预测中唯一可靠转化准确度为利润。
- 适合关注预测市场机制、量化交易或行为金融的研究者与投资者。
预测市场将分散的信念聚合为价格,作为不确定事件的概率预测。经典理论表明预测准确度与交易盈利存在清晰等价关系,但仅适用于特定自动化做市商(AMM)设计。然而,当前主流交易所采用中心限价订单簿,导致知情预测者常亏损,而无知策略可通过简单启发式获利。本文通过建立预测准确度与盈利能力之间的形式等价关系,解决此矛盾。对于任意严格合适的评分规则 $S$,我们提出一种仅依赖预测 $m{p}$ 与市价 $m{q}$ 的“正则”投注策略,在市场流动性充足时,只要 $m{p}$ 在 $S$ 下优于 $m{q}$,即可获得正期望收益。且该策略是具备此类稳健盈利保证的唯一形式。证明基于对期望收益的分解,严格推广了经典AMM保障,并解释了无准确优势的策略如何获利。实证方面,跨数千次AI模型预测,正则投注是唯一能稳定将准确度转化为利润的策略;我们进一步识别出系统性预测人格,并发现最优正则策略随人格变化。在Kalshi上为期一个月的实时部署实现80.33%的投资回报率,夏普比率达3.35。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Prediction markets aggregate dispersed beliefs into prices that act as probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events. Classical theory establishes a clean equivalence between forecasting accuracy and trading profit, but only for the specific automated market maker (AMM) design. However, the largest exchanges today are based on central limit order books in which informed forecasters routinely lose money while uninformed strategies can profit on simple heuristics. We resolve this discrepancy by establishing a formal equivalence between predictive accuracy and profitability. For any strictly proper scoring rule $S$, we exhibit a "proper" betting strategy that depends only on the forecaster's prediction $\mathbf{p}$ and the market price $\mathbf{q}$, and earns positive expected profit whenever $\mathbf{p}$ outperforms $\mathbf{q}$ under $S$ and the market has sufficient liquidity. Moreover, this proper betting is essentially the only strategy with such robust profitability guarantee. The proof rests on a decomposition of expected profit that strictly generalizes the classical AMM guarantee and also explains how strategies can profit without an accuracy edge. Empirically, across thousands of forecasts by AI models, proper betting is the only strategy that reliably converts accuracy into profit, and we further identify systematic forecasting personas and show how the optimal proper strategy varies across them. A month-long live deployment on Kalshi achieves $+80.33\%$ return on investment with a Sharpe ratio of $3.35$.
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