不同模型家族的恶意行为难以被通用监控器识别,因各自攻击模式方向不同。
Calibration-Family Overfit: Why Trusted Sabotage Monitors Don't Transfer Across Lineages

- 用跨家族测试分解监控器性能,发现攻击方向差异是主因
- 离线家族监控器仅能捕获19%攻击,远低于同家族的41%
- 建议报告跨家族迁移矩阵,避免高估监控有效性
可信监控是人工智能安全的核心防御:由廉价可信模型评估不可信模型的行为,可疑动作被审计或延迟。当前评估通常基于一两个不可信模型,将准确率归为监控器的固有属性。我们质疑这是否依赖于特定配对。以不可信策略家族为控制变量,将监控器在家族A上训练,应用于家族B,将跨家族AUROC分解为:各家族攻击明显性、监控器能力、以及去除两者后仍存的自身家族优势(交互项)。在代码后门数据集上,交互项为正,且在严格无泄露条件下稳定存在:四组开源模型家族上,+0.172(95% CI [+0.158, +0.185]),跨八家族矩阵验证,涵盖四个前沿厂商、显性匹配对照、高达340亿参数的文本阅读监控器及第二代码基准。差距呈几何级:各家族攻击占据不同评分方向,将监控方向旋转至目标家族可恢复大部分检测力,而随机旋转无效。在1%审计预算下,离线家族监控器仅捕获19%攻击,同家族则达41%,差距达21.7个百分点。控制评估应报告跨家族迁移矩阵,单一配对准确率会夸大监控器在未校准家族中的实际安全性。我们提出四步协议,每一步均有实证依据。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Trusted monitoring is a central defense in AI control: a cheaper trusted model scores an untrusted model's actions for sabotage, and the most suspicious are audited or deferred. Such monitors are evaluated against one or two untrusted models, and the accuracy is reported as a property of the monitor. We ask whether it is partly a property of the pairing. We make the untrusted policy family the controlled axis: we fit a monitor on family A's transcripts, apply it to family B, and decompose the cross-family AUROC into how obvious each family's sabotage is, how capable each monitor is, and the residual own-family advantage after both are removed: the interaction. On code-backdoor transcripts the interaction is positive and survives the dominant confounds: +0.172 (95% CI [+0.158, +0.185]) on four open-weight families on a strict leak-free basis, holding across an eight-family matrix spanning four frontier vendors, blatancy-matched controls, a trained transcript-reading monitor up to 34B parameters, and a second code benchmark. The gap is geometric: each lineage's sabotage occupies a different scoring direction, and rotating the monitor's scoring direction toward the target lineage recovers most of the lost detection while a matched random rotation recovers nothing. At a 1% audit budget under defer-to-trusted, an off-lineage monitor catches 19% of attack attempts where an in-lineage monitor catches 41% at the same audit cost, a +21.7-point gap. Control evaluations should report cross-family transfer matrices: a single-pairing accuracy overstates the safety a monitor delivers against a lineage it was not calibrated on. We give a four-step protocol that acts on the gap, with each step a measured result.
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