arXiv:2607.06614cs.LGcs.AI2026-07

用可学习的代理令牌实现高效全局建模,提升共享单车需求预测精度。

STAGformer: A Spatio-temporal Agent Graph Transformer for Micro Mobility Demand Forecasting

论文配图:STAGformer: A Spatio-temporal Agent Graph Transformer for Micro Mobility Demand Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 引入双阶段代理注意力机制,将复杂度从二次降低为线性。
  • 在纽约和芝加哥数据集上,RMSE与MAE均显著优于现有模型。
  • 适合需要高精度、大规模城市交通需求预测的研究与应用。

精准的站点级需求预测对共享单车系统高效运营至关重要,但受复杂时空依赖关系和城市网络规模影响,仍具挑战性。本文提出STAGformer,一种时空代理图变压器,通过线性计算复杂度实现高效全局建模。该模型采用两阶段代理注意力机制:少量可学习的空间与时间代理令牌先聚合全局信息,再广播回各站点与时间步,有效捕捉长程交互,将标准自注意力的二次复杂度降至O(NT)。STAGformer包含四个核心模块:融合动态节点特征与外部上下文因素(天气、时间、兴趣点)的时空编码器,用于空间邻域聚合的图传播模块,用于局部模式提取的时间卷积模块,以及用于全局依赖建模的代理注意力模块。在纽约Citi-Bike与芝加哥Divvy-Bike两个真实数据集上的大量实验表明,STAGformer在多个预测时序下持续优于当前最优基线,在RMSE与MAE上均有显著提升。消融实验验证了各组件贡献,其中代理注意力机制对建模全局时空依赖尤为关键。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate station-level demand forecasting is essential for the efficient operation of bike-sharing systems, yet it remains challenging due to complex spatio-temporal dependencies and the large scale of urban networks. This paper presents STAGformer, a Spatio-Temporal Agent Graph Transformer that achieves efficient global modeling with linear computational complexity. The model introduces a two-step agent attention mechanism, where a small set of learnable spatial and temporal agent tokens first aggregate global information and then broadcast it back to individual stations and time steps, effectively capturing long-range interactions while reducing the quadratic cost of standard self-attention to O(NT). STAGformer integrates four core modules: a spatio-temporal encoder that fuses dynamic node features with external contextual factors (weather, time, points of interest), a graph propagation module for spatial neighbor aggregation, a temporal convolution module for local pattern extraction, and the agent attention module for global dependency modeling. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets -- NYC Citi-Bike and Chicago Divvy-Bike -- demonstrate that STAGformer consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple prediction horizons, achieving significant improvements in both RMSE and MAE. Ablation studies validate the contribution of each component, with the agent attention mechanism proving critical for modeling global spatio-temporal dependencies.

需求预测图神经网络时空建模共享单车

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