研究电价预测被恶意篡改如何影响工业需求响应的收益

Adversarial attacks are crafted data manipulations that aim to deteriorate the outcomes of prediction or decision-making algorithms. In the energy systems literature, adversarial attacks have been studied with a focus on problems regarding the electricity grid. Such problems include forecasting and grid state estimation, where adversarial attacks are also known as false data injection attacks. Only few studies have analyzed the potential impact that adversarial attacks have on the demand side. We analyze how manipulated price forecasts impact the decision-making in industrial demand response. To this end, we design adversarial attacks that aim to deteriorate the output of electricity price forecasting models and solve scheduling optimization problems of energy-intensive production processes using the distorted price forecasts. We make use of a generalized process model to investigate the vulnerability to adversarial attacks for a range of production scheduling problems with different levels of process flexibility. We find that adversarial attacks can erode the profits gained from demand response. However, when perturbations are limited in extent (so that they are hard to detect by the human user), demand response preserves about 90\% of its financial advantage compared to steady-state process operation. Further, we find that the impact of adversarial attacks on demand response does not only depend on the magnitude of the perturbations but rather on the orientation of the adversarial perturbations. Therefore, we argue that attack analyses should explicitly incorporate the sensitivities of scheduling optimization models into the attack design to enable more rigorous assessments of decision-making under adversarial attacks.