arXiv:2607.07626cs.CLcs.AI2026-07

让大模型提前预判答案可信度,提升系统决策可靠性。

Future Confidence Distillation in Large Language Models

论文配图:Future Confidence Distillation in Large Language Models
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用回答过程中的隐藏状态预测可信度,比事后判断更早
  • 预判的可信度与事后评估接近,且样本效率高
  • 适合需要低延迟可靠判断的应用场景

可靠的置信度估计对部署大型语言模型于感知置信度的系统至关重要,下游任务如检索、工具调用和自适应计算均依赖准确的答案可靠性评估。现有方法多将置信度视为完成响应后的属性,忽略了置信度在回答过程中动态演变的特点。本文从时间维度出发,对比前沿与开源大模型在回答前的‘知觉认知感’(FOK)与回答后的‘学习判断’(JOL)置信度。结果表明,后验置信度始终更校准且更具区分性;而基于隐藏表示训练的线性探测器可恢复远超模型显式表达的置信度信息。据此提出未来置信度蒸馏:利用后验正确性探测器生成的教师置信度,训练仅依赖回答前隐藏状态的预测器。该方法仅需回答前状态即可推理,却能实现接近后验置信度的校准效果,兼具高效性和跨数据集域内迁移能力。研究证明置信度信息在回答过程中持续演化,且可在生成完成前被有效预测,从而实现更可靠、低成本的置信度估计。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Reliable confidence estimation is essential for deploying large language models (LLMs) in confidence-aware systems, where downstream decisions such as retrieval, tool use, and adaptive computation depend on accurately estimating answer reliability. Existing approaches, however, largely treat confidence as a property of completed responses, overlooking how confidence-related information evolves throughout the answering process. In this work, we investigate confidence from a temporal perspective by comparing pre-solution Feeling-of-Knowing (FOK) and post-solution Judgement-of-Learning (JOL) confidence estimates across frontier and open-source LLMs. We show that post-solution confidence is consistently better calibrated and more discriminative than pre-solution confidence, while linear probes trained on hidden representations recover substantially richer confidence-related information than models explicitly verbalise. Building on this observation, we introduce future confidence distillation, which trains predictors operating on pre-solution hidden representations using teacher confidence estimates produced by post-solution correctness probes. Despite requiring only pre-solution representations for inference, distilled predictors recover much of the calibration improvement achieved by post-solution confidence, remain highly sample efficient, and transfer across datasets within the same domain. Together, our findings demonstrate that confidence-related information evolves throughout the answering process and can be anticipated before answer generation is complete, enabling significantly more reliable yet low-cost confidence estimation.

置信度估计大模型推理优化

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