arXiv:2607.08079cs.AI2026-07

用物理知识增强的光伏预测模型,提升复杂条件下的准确性。

PARA-PV: Physics-Aware Retrieval-Augmented PV Prediction Based on Frozen Foundation Model and Distribution Shift Correction

论文配图:PARA-PV: Physics-Aware Retrieval-Augmented PV Prediction Based on Frozen Foundation Model and Distribution Shift Correction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 结合物理规律检索历史数据,生成符合实际的初始预测。
  • 通过轻量适配器引入时间序列通用模式,不破坏物理约束。
  • 针对不同运行状态动态调整误差权重,重点优化关键时段。

精确的光伏功率预测对电网调度和可再生能源并网至关重要,但受天气波动、昼夜交替、运行模式变化及严格物理约束共同影响,仍具挑战性。本文提出PARA-PV,一个融合物理知识的检索增强型预测框架。该框架将多变量光伏观测编码为局部块表示,并通过物理感知的检索-增强学习器,查找在时间形态、功率水平、运行状态和日内时段上与当前窗口一致的历史块与类比轨迹,生成物理合理的基线预测。为补充局部记忆中的广泛时序知识,基线预测通过轻量级残差适配器与冻结的Chronos时间序列基础模型先验校准,使通用时序规律适应光伏特性而不覆盖物理基础。由于天气和昼夜模式变化时残差分布偏移仍存在,后续引入物理感知的分布偏移修正模块,基于功率、气象、时间戳及昼夜状态,选择性应用门控均值与尺度修正。最后,采用物理约束损失函数,将样本划分为峰值、爬坡、夜间与常规时段,自适应重加权误差贡献,避免常规时段主导学习而抑制对关键运行状态的学习。代码已开源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for reliable grid dispatch and renewable energy integration, yet it remains challenging because PV generation is jointly shaped by weather variability, day-night transitions, regime-dependent dynamics, and strict physical constraints. We propose PARA-PV, a Physics-Aware Retrieval-Augmented framework that embeds physical knowledge throughout the forecasting process. The framework first encodes multivariate PV observations into patch-level representations and, through a physics-aware retrieval-augmented learner, retrieves historical patches and analog trajectories that are consistent with the current window in temporal shape, power level, PV operating state, and intra-day period; this yields a physically grounded base forecast. To supplement local memory with broader temporal knowledge, the base forecast is then calibrated against a frozen Chronos time-series foundation-model prior through a lightweight residual adapter, so that general temporal regularities are adapted to PV-specific dynamics without overriding the physically grounded prediction. Because residual conditional distribution shifts persist when weather and diurnal regimes change, a physics-aware distribution shift correction module subsequently adjusts the preliminary forecast using power, weather, timestamp, and day/night conditions, applying gated mean-shift and scale corrections selectively. Finally, a physics-constrained loss function partitions the samples into peak, ramping, night-time, and regular regimes and adaptively reweights their error contributions, preventing the dominant regular regime from suppressing learning of operationally critical states. Our code is available at https://github.com/weican1103/PARA-PV.

光伏预测物理信息时间序列检索增强

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