arXiv:2607.08918cs.LG2026-07中稿 · publication in 202…

用机器学习快速评估电力通信网关键组件,效率提升158倍

A Machine Learning Surrogate for Component Criticality Ranking in Interdependent Power-Communication Networks

  • 基于结构特征构建机器学习代理模型,替代高耗时仿真
  • 在IEEE 118节点系统上预测严重性相关性达0.849(斯皮尔曼)
  • 适合电网韧性评估与关键部件筛选,加速故障防控决策

网络化电力系统因电力与通信基础设施间的耦合关系,易发生级联故障。由于使用高保真模拟器评估大规模N-k扰动组合计算成本高昂,本文基于已发布的修正蕴含依赖模型(MIIM)作为真实故障模拟器,开发了机器学习代理模型。该模型从无泄漏的结构特征中预测扰动严重性,并生成基于关联性的组件重要性排序,用于韧性筛查。在IEEE 118节点系统上,梯度提升模型在留出样本上的严重性排序斯皮尔曼相关系数达0.849;五折交叉验证下,组件排序与MIIM结果的相关性为0.838,接近观测到的跨样本可重复性水平。特征消融分析显示,跨层依赖特征贡献了模型主要优势,端到端筛查速度较直接MIIM评估快约158倍。结果支持两阶段工作流:先由代理模型筛选候选扰动与组件,再由MIIM进行选择性验证,而非直接识别最优加固策略。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Cyber-physical power systems are vulnerable to cascading failures caused by interdependencies between power and communication infrastructures. Because evaluating large N-k contingency sets with a high-fidelity simulator is computationally expensive, this paper develops a machine-learning surrogate using the previously published Modified Implicative Interdependency Model (MIIM) as the ground-truth cascade simulator. The surrogate predicts contingency severity from leakage-free structural features and derives an association-based component-criticality ranking for resilience screening. On the IEEE 118-bus system, Gradient Boosting achieves a held-out Spearman correlation of 0.849 for contingency-severity ranking. Using five-fold out-of-fold predictions, the resulting component ranking achieves a Spearman correlation of 0.838 with the MIIM-derived ranking and closely approaches the observed cross-sample reproducibility level. Feature-ablation results show that inter-layer dependency features drive most of the surrogate's advantage, while end-to-end screening is approximately 158x faster than direct MIIM evaluation. The results support a two-stage workflow in which the surrogate screens candidate contingencies and components, and MIIM provides selective verification rather than directly identifying optimal hardening actions.

电力系统机器学习韧性评估关键性排序

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