arXiv:2607.09196cs.LG2026-07

用机器学习预测桌游怪物等级,帮设计师高效平衡敌人强度。

Application of machine learning to monster level prediction in tabletop RPG game design

论文配图:Application of machine learning to monster level prediction in tabletop RPG game design
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将怪物属性转为等级的任务建模为表格型序数回归。
  • 树模型在预测精度和排序一致性上接近完美,优于线性与神经网络方法。
  • 结果符合游戏规则逻辑,适合用于辅助游戏设计与平衡调试。

桌游角色扮演游戏(TTRPG)中设计平衡的敌方单位是核心但耗时的任务。以《Pathfinder》为例,每个怪物由多个数值属性共同决定其强度,最终归纳为一个有序等级。本文研究是否可用机器学习从怪物属性预测该等级,将任务定义为表格型序数回归。我们构建了首个专用于此目的的数据集,基于公开的《Pathfinder Second Edition》数据。在此基础上,对比经典回归模型(带四舍五入)、专用表格型序数回归算法及带序数感知损失的神经网络。为贴近实际设计流程,采用时间顺序与扩展窗口评估协议,并使用多种互补指标。结果显示,基于树的集成模型显著优于线性模型与神经网络,在近似完美排序的同时保持高预测准确率。可解释性分析(如特征重要性、误差分布)表明模型与人类直觉一致,遵循游戏规则逻辑。整体表明,机器学习可可靠模拟设计者判断,成为怪物平衡与更广泛TTRPG系统设计的有效辅助工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Designing balanced adversaries is a central but labor-intensive task in tabletop role-playing game (TTRPG) development. In systems such as Pathfinder, each monster is described by many numerical attributes that jointly determine its power, summarized as an ordinal level. We investigate whether machine learning can support designers by predicting this level from a monster's attributes, framing the task as tabular ordinal regression. We introduce what is, to our knowledge, the first dataset built specifically for TTRPG monster-level prediction, derived from publicly available Pathfinder Second Edition data. Using it, we compare classical regression models with rounding schemes, dedicated tabular ordinal regression algorithms, and neural networks with ordinal-aware losses. To mirror real design workflows, we evaluate all models under chronological and expanding-window protocols with several complementary metrics. Results show that tree-based ensembles outperform linear models and neural approaches, achieving near-perfect ordinal ranking and high predictive accuracy. Explainable AI analyses, such as feature importance and error distributions, show that the model is aligned with human intuition and follows patterns grounded in game rules. Together, these results show that machine learning can reliably approximate designer judgments and serve as an effective computer-aided tool for monster balancing and broader TTRPG system design.

游戏设计机器学习序数回归可解释性

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。