用大模型生成多组可靠解释,提升预测准确率与可信度。
All Explanations are Wrong, But Many Are Useful: Exploring the Rashomon Explanation Set with Large Language Models

- 构建可解释性与预测能力协同的解释集,打破传统权衡。
- 在多个真实场景中,解释质量与预测精度均显著优于现有方法。
- 适合关注模型可信度与业务性能提升的研究者与工程师。
机器学习模型的可解释性对决策和用户信任日益重要,但现有可解释AI(XAI)方法普遍面临准确性与可解释性之间的权衡。我们提出,这一权衡并非根本性问题,而是将解释与预测视为独立目标所致;当二者正确耦合时,它们相互促进,使模型具备自解释能力反而能提升准确率。本文引入Rashomon解释范式,构建一组忠实于预测结果、引导模型表现的解释集合,并证明该集合通常非空,且解释保真度约束所引导模型的性能上限。为探索该集合,我们提出RashomonLLM——一种解释-预测-反思的智能体工作流,通过自然语言迭代对齐解释与预测,证明其收敛并能恢复完整解释集。在客户流失分类、临床生存回归及大规模直播点击率预测任务中,RashomonLLM在准确率与解释质量上均显著超越先进基线,性能提升由解释保真度驱动,且对分布偏移、时间划分和随机种子具有鲁棒性。该框架既提升业务表现,也为建立用户信任奠定基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Explaining machine-learning models is increasingly important for decision-making and consumer trust, yet it is widely believed to come at a cost: existing Explainable AI (XAI) methods suffer from a persistent accuracy-explainability trade-off. We argue that this trade-off is not fundamental, but an artifact of treating explanation and prediction as separate objectives; when properly coupled, they become complementary, so that equipping a model to explain itself improves, rather than degrades, its accuracy. We introduce the Rashomon Explanation paradigm, which builds a set of faithful, prediction-guiding explanations rather than a single one, and prove that this set is generally non-empty and that explanation fidelity bounds the performance of the models it guides. To explore this set, we propose RashomonLLM, an Explanation-Prediction-Reflection agentic workflow that generates explanations in natural language by iteratively aligning them with predictions, and we prove it converges and recovers the full set. Across customer-churn classification, clinical survival regression, and industrial click-through prediction on large-scale live-streaming logs, RashomonLLM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art prediction and XAI baselines on both accuracy and explanation quality, with gains driven by explanation fidelity and robust to distribution shifts, temporal splits, and seeds. Our framework thus advances business performance while laying the groundwork for consumer trust.
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