arXiv:2607.09537cs.LG2026-07

用可学习路由机制动态组合三种线性基,提升时间序列预测精度与可解释性。

GatedLinear: Adaptive Routing of Complementary Linear Bases for Time Series Forecasting

论文配图:GatedLinear: Adaptive Routing of Complementary Linear Bases for Time Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过三类互补线性基实现自适应路由:趋势季节、增量漂移、周期重复。
  • 在标准数据集上达到领先或接近顶尖的预测性能,参数量显著更小。
  • 适合需要可解释性和低计算开销的工业级时间序列预测场景。

时间序列预测需捕捉多样且常互斥的动态模式,如平滑趋势延续、非平稳漂移及严格相位对齐的周期性重复。现有深度学习模型通常依赖单一计算主干(如自注意力或频域滤波),其固定归纳偏置难以应对真实世界序列的复杂异质性。为此,我们提出GatedLinear:一种轻量级框架,将预测建模为互补线性基的自适应路由。该框架包含三类专用机制:用于平滑投影的全局趋势-季节基、用于非平稳漂移的差分增量基、用于显式周期复用的相位对齐循环基。引入三因子融合门,将路由决策解耦为通道特异性偏好、时序感知偏移及基于已知未来时间标记的相位索引偏差。该设计实现无需堆叠高计算量神经模块的细粒度点级软路由。在标准基准测试中,本方法在保持极小参数量的同时,达到或超越近期复杂基础模型的预测精度,并提供明确可解释的路由模式。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting requires models to capture diverse, often mutually exclusive, temporal dynamics, from smooth trend continuation to nonstationary drift and strict phase-aligned recurrence. While recent deep learning models have improved accuracy, they typically force these diverse patterns through a single computational backbone governed by fixed algorithmic inductive biases (e.g., self-attention or spectral filtering). This single-mechanism approach often struggles with the profound heterogeneity of real-world series, where different variables and forecast horizons necessitate fundamentally different predictive treatments. To address this, we propose GatedLinear: a lightweight framework that frames forecasting as the adaptive routing of complementary linear bases. GatedLinear leverages a pool of three specialized mechanisms: a global trend-seasonal basis for smooth projection, a difference-based incremental basis for nonstationary drift, and a phase-aligned recurrence basis for explicit cyclic reuse. To dynamically orchestrate these distinct behaviors, we introduce a Tri-Factorized Fusion Gate that disentangles routing decisions into channel-specific preferences, horizon-aware offsets, and phase-indexed biases derived from known future time marks. This design allows the model to perform highly granular, point-wise soft routing across different predictive regimes without stacking computationally heavy neural modules. Experiments on standard benchmarks show that our method achieves state-of-the-art or highly competitive accuracy against recent complex foundational models, while offering explicitly interpretable routing patterns and operating with a substantially smaller parameter footprint.

时间序列线性基可解释性轻量化

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