arXiv:2607.09820cs.LGq-fin.CP2026-07

让优化模型自动学习不确定性范围,提升投资决策的鲁棒性与适应性。

Learning Predictive Ambiguity Sets for Decision-Focused Distributionally Robust Optimization

  • 用深度模型动态生成预测分布和可变半径的不确定性集
  • 在美股组合优化中实现年化26.28%回报,夏普比率1.30
  • 自适应半径减少过度保守,适合金融等高风险决策场景

预测-再优化系统通常将不确定性压缩为点预测,再假设其可靠地求解下游优化问题。分布鲁棒优化(DRO)能防范模型误设,但传统方法的不确定性集多以历史样本为中心且半径固定。本文提出学习型预测不确定性集(LPAS):通过深度上下文模型输出有限的名义情景分布、状态相关的Wasserstein半径,以及可选的各向异性基度量。这些输出构成上下文相关不确定性集,输入至DRO决策层。半径通过条件分位数校准、规模正则化与下游决策损失联合训练,使鲁棒性具备自适应性而非全局固定。推导出决策层使用的有限对偶形式,提出分阶段训练算法。在2018–2026年间20个标普500成分股的分布鲁棒投资组合优化任务上评估,所提方法显著优于等权、预测-再优化及历史Wasserstein DRO基线,实现年化26.28%回报、夏普比率1.30、最终财富1.61,尾部损失更低,且平均半径更小。结果表明,学习得到的半径可恢复强固定半径DRO的大部分性能,同时减少不必要的保守性并提升状态适应性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predict-then-optimize systems usually compress uncertainty into a point forecast and then solve a downstream optimization problem as if the forecast were reliable. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offers protection against misspecification, but the ambiguity set is often centered at historical samples and uses a fixed radius. We propose \emph{learned predictive ambiguity sets} (LPAS): a deep contextual model outputs a finite nominal scenario distribution, a state-dependent Wasserstein radius, and optionally an anisotropic ground metric. These outputs define a contextual ambiguity set that feeds a DRO decision layer. The radius is trained by a combination of conditional quantile calibration, size regularization, and downstream decision loss, so that robustness is adaptive rather than globally fixed. We derive the finite dual form used by the decision layer, present a staged training algorithm, and evaluate the method on distributionally robust portfolio optimization with 20 S&P 500 constituents from 2018--2026. The proposed method substantially improves over equal-weight, predict-then-optimize, and historical Wasserstein DRO baselines, achieving 26.28% annualized return, Sharpe ratio 1.30, final wealth 1.61, and lower tail loss than a deep fixed-radius DRO baseline while using a smaller average radius. The results show that learned ambiguity radii can recover most of the performance of strong fixed-radius DRO while reducing unnecessary conservatism and improving regime adaptivity.

优化鲁棒性深度学习金融

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