用深度学习预测农业气象参数,混合模型效果更优。
Exploratory Analysis of Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Meteorological Parameters in the Agricultural Sector

- 对比了LSTM、GRU及卷积-循环混合模型的预报性能
- 混合模型在24小时和168小时预报上分别达0.8275和0.7829的综合得分
- 卷积层有助于短时预报,且CNN-LSTM参数更少
精准的气象预报对农业规划、灌溉管理和环境决策至关重要。本研究比较了循环神经网络与混合深度学习架构在多变量气象参数预测中的表现,包括参考蒸散量(ET₀)、水汽压差(VPD)、风速以及风向的正弦与余弦分量。分析基于希腊伊奥尼亚从2011年1月到2026年4月共134,376条每小时观测数据,数据来源于ERA5并通过OpenMeteo历史天气API获取。对比了单层与多层的GRU和LSTM网络,以及1D-CNN-GRU和1D-CNN-LSTM混合模型,评估任务为24小时次日预报与168小时一周前瞻预报。采用归一化均方根误差、决定系数和综合加权商数评分(WQS)进行评价。最优纯循环模型分别为:24小时预报使用64单元LSTM(WQS=0.816755),168小时预报使用1024单元GRU(WQS=0.779465)。混合模型中,CNN-GRU在24小时和168小时预报上分别达到最高分0.827535和0.782863,但需更多参数;而CNN-LSTM结果相近,参数显著更少。相比基线模型,混合模型在24小时提升WQS 1.22–1.63%,168小时提升0.44–0.45%,表明卷积特征提取对短期预报更具优势。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate meteorological forecasting is essential for agricultural planning, irrigation management, and environmental decision support. This study conducts a comparative evaluation of recurrent and hybrid deep learning architectures for multivariate forecasting of reference evapotranspiration ($ET_0$), vapour pressure deficit (VPD), wind speed, and the sine and cosine components of wind direction. The analysis utilizes 134,376 hourly observations from Ioannina, Greece, spanning January 2011 to April 2026, sourced from ERA5 via the OpenMeteo Historical Weather API. Single and multi-layer GRU and LSTM networks are compared with hybrid 1D-CNN-GRU and 1D-CNN-LSTM models for two forecasting tasks: a 24-hour next-day forecast and a 168-hour week-ahead forecast. Performance is evaluated using normalized root mean squared error, the coefficient of determination, and a composite Weighted Quotient Score (WQS). The most effective purely recurrent models are a 64-unit LSTM for the 24-hour horizon, with a WQS of 0.816755, and a 1024-unit GRU for the 168-hour horizon, with a WQS of 0.779465. The hybrid CNN-GRU models achieved the highest overall scores of 0.827535 and 0.782863 for the 24-hour and 168-hour horizons, but with additionally more number of units respectively to LSTM models, while the CNN-LSTM models yield nearly identical results with substantially fewer parameters. Compared to the corresponding recurrent baselines, the hybrid models improve WQS by 1.22--1.63\% at 24 hours and by 0.44--0.45\% at 168 hours, indicating that convolutional feature extraction is more beneficial for short-term forecasting.
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