arXiv:2607.11177cs.LGstat.ML2026-07

用深度学习直接估计分数阶霍克斯过程参数,比传统方法快且准。

NeuroMem-FHP: A Likelihood-Free Deep Learning Framework for Parameter Estimation of Fractional Hawkes Process

论文配图:NeuroMem-FHP: A Likelihood-Free Deep Learning Framework for Parameter Estimation of Fractional Hawkes Process
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用LSTM和Transformer从事件间隔直接预测参数,无需复杂似然计算。
  • Transformer误差仅0.1634,远低于传统方法的2.8032。
  • 适合需要高效建模长记忆事件系统的研究人员。

本文提出基于深度学习的NeuroMem-FHP框架,用于估计分数阶霍克斯过程(FHP)的参数。FHP是一种自激点过程,通过分数阶梅塔格-莱勒核捕捉长程依赖。我们设计了两种神经网络结构:长短期记忆网络(LSTM)和Transformer,可直接从事件间隔序列中估计模型参数(μ, γ, α, β),无需进行计算量大的似然优化。在合成数据上的实验表明,两种神经模型均显著优于经典最大似然估计(MLE)方法,其中Transformer的均方误差最低(MSE = 0.1634),其次为LSTM(MSE = 0.1752),而MLE的误差为2.8032。消融实验进一步分析了关键超参数对性能的影响。该框架还在两个真实高频率数据集上进行了验证:AAPL NBBO交易数据与蒙哥马利县911紧急呼叫记录。通过预测验证,由估计参数生成的事件序列能准确再现观测数据的经验分布、尾部特征和时间依赖结构。结果表明,基于Transformer的参数估计为FHP提供了准确高效的替代方案,为建模具有长记忆动态的事件驱动系统提供了有力框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this paper, we propose deep learning based NeuroMem-FHP framework for estimating the parameters of the fractional Hawkes process (FHP), a self-exciting point process that captures long-range dependence through a fractional Mittag-Leffler excitation kernel. Two neural architectures, namely a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network and a Transformer, are developed to estimate the model parameters $(μ,γ,α,β)$ directly from sequences of inter-arrival times without requiring computationally intensive likelihood optimization. Experiments on synthetic data that both neural models significantly outperform the classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method, with the Transformer achieving the highest estimation accuracy (MSE = $0.1634$), followed by the LSTM (MSE = $0.1752$), compared to MLE (MSE = $2.8032$). An ablation study further examines the effects of key hyperparameters on model performance. The proposed framework is also on two real-world high-frequency datasets, namely AAPL NBBO transaction data and Montgomery County 911 emergency call records. Using a predictive validation approach, event sequences simulated from the estimated parameters closely reproduce the empirical distribution, tail behavior, and temporal dependence structure of the observed data. These results demonstrate that Transformer-based parameter estimation provides an accurate and efficient alternative to conventional estimation techniques for FHP and offers a promising framework for modeling event-driven systems with long-memory dynamics.

分数阶过程点过程深度学习参数估计

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