用大模型复现人类路线选择偏见,实现可扩展行为建模
Reproducing human biases in route choice using large language models: Toward scalable behavioral modeling

- 用大模型模拟人类路线选择,无需手动设定参数
- 模型能重现前景理论预测的非理性决策偏差
- 适合大规模行为模拟与智能交通研究者
人类决策行为(如路线选择)存在系统性偏差,偏离完全理性的假设。累积前景理论(CPT)被广泛用于刻画此类行为模式,但其大规模应用依赖个体层面的CPT参数设定,成为主要瓶颈。传统方法依赖问卷和实验校准参数,难以泛化且无法捕捉决策多样性。本文探究大语言模型(LLMs)是否可在不显式指定前景理论参数的情况下,复现人类决策中的行为偏差。以路线选择为典型场景,设计行为评估框架,系统比较LLM生成决策与CPT预测的人类行为模式。实验表明,LLMs能够再现非理性决策偏差,在不确定性下表现出符合前景理论效应的行为。结果表明,生成式AI模型可作为人决策建模的可扩展替代方案,为下一代大规模基于代理的仿真与人工智能驱动的行为研究提供基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Human choice behavior, including route choice, exhibits systematic behavioral biases that deviate from the assumptions of full rationality. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) has been widely recognized as an effective framework for characterizing such behavioral patterns. However, its large-scale application, particularly in simulation and agent-based modeling, critically depends on specifying individual-level CPT parameters, which remain a major bottleneck. Conventional approaches typically rely on surveys and controlled experiments to calibrate CPT parameters, yet these methods are difficult to generalize and often fail to capture the full diversity of human decision-making. To address this challenge, this paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) can reproduce human behavioral biases in choice-making without explicit specification of prospect-theoretic parameters. Using route choice as a representative scenario, we design a behavioral evaluation framework and systematically compare LLM-generated decisions with established human behavioral patterns predicted by CPT. Experimental results demonstrate that LLMs are capable of reproducing non-rational human choice biases and can exhibit decision behaviors consistent with prospect-theoretic effects under uncertainty. These findings suggest that generative AI models may provide a scalable alternative for modeling human decision processes and offer a promising foundation for next-generation large-scale agent-based simulation and AI-driven behavioral research.
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