arXiv:2607.11889cs.CLcs.AI2026-07被引 2

构建时间点对齐的语言模型,避免未来信息泄露。

Scaling Point-in-Time Language Models

  • 用按时间过滤的1万亿文本训练时序模型,确保数据不包含未来信息。
  • 40亿参数模型在多数任务上接近主流开源模型表现,仅少数任务有差距。
  • 开源全流程工具链,支持金融与社科领域严格时序验证的研究。

在无限制互联网语料上训练的大语言模型不可避免地嵌入未来信息,导致金融与社会科学中回测和因果推断的偏差。点对点语言模型通过仅使用每个日历日期前可得文本进行训练,从结构上消除信息泄露问题,但现有方法通常性能显著落后于非受限模型。本文通过规模扩展显著缩小了这一差距:在1万亿条按时间筛选的FineWeb数据上,训练最大达40亿参数的解码器仅变压器模型,构建了2013-2024年每月的模型检查点。在多种常识推理与语言理解基准测试中,其表现接近同规模领先开放权重模型(如Gemma-3-4B和LLaMA-7B)在非时序约束数据上的水平,尽管在部分任务仍存在性能差距。通过LoRA进行指令微调进一步提升了下游可用性。研究团队发布了完整流程——包括数据构建、训练基础设施与评估代码,以支持可复现的点对点语言建模,并服务于需要严格时序有效性的研究应用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large language models trained on unrestricted internet corpora inevitably embed information from the future, introducing lookahead bias that compromises the validity of backtests and causal inference in finance and the social sciences. Point-in-time language models--trained exclusively on text available up to each calendar date--eliminate this leakage by construction, but existing efforts typically produce models that lag substantially behind their unconstrained counterparts. We show that this performance gap can be substantially narrowed through scale. Training decoder-only transformers with up to 4 billion parameters on 1 trillion chronologically filtered tokens from FineWeb, we construct a sequence of monthly model checkpoints spanning 2013-2024. Across a range of common-sense reasoning and language understanding benchmarks, our models approach the performance of leading open-weight models of comparable size (e.g., Gemma-3-4B and LLaMA-7B) trained on temporally unrestricted data, although a performance gap remains on several tasks. Instruction fine-tuning via LoRA further improves downstream usability. We release the complete pipeline--including dataset construction, training infrastructure, and evaluation code--to enable reproducible point-in-time language modeling and to support research applications that require strict temporal validity.

时序模型语言模型金融分析数据安全

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