arXiv:2607.11896cs.LGcs.AI2026-07

融合站点与网格化预测,提升PM10长期预报精度与空间连续性。

OmniPMNet: Bridging discrete and gridded PM10 forecasts via omni-query neural processes

论文配图:OmniPMNet: Bridging discrete and gridded PM10 forecasts via omni-query neural processes
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于ConvCNP构建统一空间表征,融合GNN与CTM预测结果
  • 108小时预报中站点误差21.14 ug/m³,较基准降低4.3%,网格误差降30%
  • 在高浓度区和沙尘事件中表现突出,适合环境监测与应急决策

PM10预报需兼顾站点精度与空间连续性,尤其在严重沙尘暴期间。化学传输模型(CTMs)提供网格化预报但存在局部偏差,图神经网络(GNNs)在短时站点预报上表现好但无法生成网格输出。本文提出OmniPM-Net,一种基于卷积条件神经过程(ConvCNP)的融合模型,在共享空间表征中协调两类预测。地形感知高斯集卷积将不规则的GNN站点预报升维至规则网格,多尺度空间源注意力(SSA)模块将其与欧洲哥白尼大气监测服务(CAMS)预报融合;共享全查询读出机制则在108小时预报期内,同时输出站点或网格单元的统一PM10预测。在2024年全年中国1,618个空气质量监测站上评估,该模型在站点层面达到21.14 ug/m³的平均绝对误差,优于更强的GNN基线(22.00 ug/m³),并将CAMS误差降低30%;同时生成了离散GNN无法提供的连续网格场。其最大优势体现在高浓度尾部(90百分位误差相对GNN下降9%,相对CAMS下降25%)及沙尘天气期间,显著提升分类检测能力并准确追踪空间演变轨迹。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Forecasting particulate matter (PM10) requires both station-scale accuracy and continuous spatial fields, especially during severe dust storms. Chemical transport models (CTMs) provide gridded forecasts but retain local biases, whereas graph neural networks (GNNs) track monitoring sites well at short lead times but do not produce gridded outputs. Here we present OmniPM-Net, a Convolutional Conditional Neural Process (ConvCNP)-based fusion model that reconciles these two forecast types within a shared spatial representation. A terrain-aware Gaussian set convolution lifts irregular GNN station forecasts onto a regular grid, where a multi-scale Spatial Source Attention (SSA) module blends them with Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) forecasts; a shared omni-query readout then decodes this representation into consistent PM10 predictions at either stations or grid cells over a 108 h horizon. Evaluated across 1,618 air-quality monitoring stations throughout China over the full year of 2024, OmniPM-Net matches the station-level accuracy of the stronger GNN baseline (mean absolute error 21.14 versus 22.00 ug/m3) and reduces the CAMS mean absolute error by 30%, while simultaneously delivering the gridded fields that the discrete GNN cannot. Its clearest gains are in the high-concentration tail, where the 90th-percentile MAE falls by 9% relative to the GNN and 25% relative to CAMS, and during dust episodes, where it improves categorical detection skill while tracking the evolving spatial trajectory.

PM10预报时空预测多模态融合环境建模

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