arXiv:2607.11983econ.EMcs.AI2026-07

将缺陷视为可移除的设计变量,实现经济上最优的智能决策。

Removable Defects: The Economics and Limits of Deliberate Deficiency

  • 把缺陷看作可动态移除的资源,通过补偿通道应对致命风险。
  • 缺陷可移除的条件由检测器性能与优势阈值共同决定,收益来自对误判的精准控制。
  • 适合需要高鲁棒性与可解释性的关键任务系统,如医疗诊断、自动驾驶。

专家容忍一般者无法接受的盲区,通常被视为需最小化的代价。本文将其作为可调控的设计变量:缺陷可保留以获利,在罕见致命情境下可通过补偿通道即时移除。核心结论包括:第一,当存在优势条件时,保留缺陷为可计算的经济最优选择;结构上对应于Ehrlich-Becker市场与自我保险的边际,检测器扮演镇登式高成本状态验证技术。第二,提出缺陷可移除性的双向刻画:若缺陷是感知的粗化,则无法分离收益与损失,导致探测器零溢价;反之,超出缺陷范围的检测器可获正溢价。在结构化不确定性类中(严重性受限或漏检率O(1/L)),缺陷可盈利移除当且仅当检测相关区分仍存且满足优势条件,溢价为类别ROC集在经济价格向量下的支撑函数。第三,观测缺陷与容量缺陷的根本区别在于是否能通过部署分布恢复;差异分解为交叉泄露与闭包亏缺,任务随机化仅可弥补后者。检测器可从声明的致命类别中学习,训练成本与损失严重性线性相关(对数因子内)。结果融合了周的拒绝选项、凯利破产下的增长理论与选择性预测。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

A specialist tolerates blind spots that a generalist does not. Usually this is treated as a cost to be minimized. We treat it as a design variable: a deficiency can be kept because it pays and removed on demand in the rare situation where it would be fatal, by routing to a compensation channel. We give three results. First, an advantage condition under which keeping the deficiency is a computable economic position; structurally it is the Ehrlich-Becker market-vs-self-insurance margin applied to a competence gap, with the detector as a Townsend costly-state-verification technology. Second, a two-sided characterization of removability. A coupling lemma shows that when the deficiency is a coarsening of perception, no switch can separate benefit from harm, yielding a converse (a confounded detector earns zero premium, and any within-defect policy insisting on positive premium is driven, under multiplicative dynamics, to negative long-run growth) and an achievability result (a detector outside the deficiency earns a positive premium). Together, over structured uncertainty classes with severity capped or miss rate O(1/L): a defect is profitably removable iff the detector-relevant distinction survives the restriction and the advantage condition holds; the premium is the support function of the class's ROC set at an economic price vector. Third, observation defects and capacity defects differ exactly on whether access to the deployment distribution rescues them; the gap decomposes as cross-leak plus a closure deficit, and per-task randomization buys back the latter, never the former. The detector can be learned from declared fatal categories at a training bill linear in loss severity (up to a log factor). The results synthesize Chow's reject option, Kelly growth under ruin, and selective prediction.

缺陷管理智能决策风险控制

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