让AI从预测转向发现,构建可解释的机制模型
From Observation to Insight: Mechanistic World Models and the Quest for Autonomous Discovery
- 以可复用机制为中心设计世界模型,重构学习框架
- 整合可解释性、因果学习等方向,形成统一发现范式
- 适合追求自主科学发现的AI研究者和跨学科探索者
近期基础模型的发展推动了人工智能在科学领域的应用,使蛋白质折叠、天气预报等多个领域实现了高度精准的预测。然而,仅靠预测无法实现科学发现。真正的科学理解依赖于揭示生成观测结果的可复用解释机制,而当前机器学习仍以预测映射为核心。本文提出,科学发现本质上是知识组织问题。为此,我们引入机制世界模型(Mechanistic World Models),将可复用机制置于表征、计算与学习的核心。结合科学哲学洞见,我们推导出发现所需的计算能力,识别促进解释性知识涌现的设计原则与归纳压力,并形式化机制中心世界模型的结构。最后,我们指出机械可解释性、因果表示学习、方程发现与模块化架构等方向虽各自贡献关键要素,但缺乏统一框架。本文提出机制世界模型作为迈向自主科学发现的概念基础与计算蓝图。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recent advances in foundation models have transformed AI for Science, enabling remarkably accurate predictive performance across domains ranging from protein folding to weather forecasting. Yet prediction alone does not constitute scientific discovery. Scientific understanding depends on uncovering the reusable explanatory mechanisms that generate observations, whereas contemporary machine learning remains fundamentally organised around predictive mappings rather than explanatory structure. In this paper, we argue that scientific discovery is fundamentally a problem of knowledge organisation. To this end, we introduce Mechanistic World Models, a new design paradigm that places reusable mechanisms at the centre of representation, computation and learning. Drawing on insights from the philosophy of science, we derive the computational capabilities required for discovery, identify the design principles and inductive pressures that encourage explanatory knowledge to emerge, and formalise the anatomy of a mechanism-centric world model. Finally, we show how diverse research directions including mechanistic interpretability, causal representation learning, equation discovery and modular architectures capture complementary ingredients of this paradigm while lacking a unified framework. We propose Mechanistic World Models as a conceptual foundation and computational blueprint for moving AI beyond predictive forecasting towards autonomous scientific discovery.
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