arXiv:2607.13101cs.LGcs.AI2026-07

TSSM通过历史数据增强,显著提升全球气象预报精度与鲁棒性。

TSSM: Triaxial State Space Model for Global Station Weather Forecasting with Temporal-Variable-Historical Modeling

论文配图:TSSM: Triaxial State Space Model for Global Station Weather Forecasting with Temporal-Variable-Historical Modeling
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建三轴状态空间模型,融合周期对齐的历史气象数据。
  • 在Weather-5K上实现10%准确率提升,极端天气预测指标提高61%。
  • 适用于长时序、迭代预报,缺失80%数据仍保持超90%性能。

全球站点气象预报(GSWF)对关键区域的局部及极端天气预测至关重要。现有方法依赖短期模式,难以捕捉混沌天气动态,尤其在部分观测条件下表现不佳。为此,本文提出新型三轴状态空间模型(TSSM),采用时变历史建模机制,引入周期对齐的历史气象数据,补足超出回溯窗口的长期、大尺度周期性与全窗口模式。TSSM将历史样本按周期对齐分批处理,利用历史与当前观测协同支持因果预测;设计时间、变量、历史三重扫描机制,捕获轴向时间依赖、变量相关性与历史演化。该结构分层共享,有效建模季节至极端事件,并缓解历史模式错位问题。TSSM在目前最大站点气象数据集Weather-5K上达到最优性能,准确率提升10%,极端事件指标提升61%,在人工参与数据集上95%为最佳或第二佳结果。长时序与迭代预报中优势更显著,240小时预测准确率提升37.5%,48小时×5次迭代设置下最高达103.5%。此外,在高达80%数据缺失下仍保持>90%性能,远优于基线(<43%),展现出强鲁棒性与在全球原位观测网络中的实用潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF) is pivotal for localized and extreme weather prediction over key regions. Despite efforts to exploit look-back windows, existing methods show limited accuracy gains and struggle with extreme events and error accumulation. These limitations stem from overreliance on short-term patterns, which are insufficient to capture chaotic weather dynamics, especially under partial observations. To address this problem, we propose a novel Triaxial State Space Model (TSSM) with a history-enhanced Temporal-VariableHistorical paradigm, which incorporates period-aligned historical weather data to compensate for long-term, large-scale periodic, and full-window weather patterns beyond the temporal lookback window. Specifically, TSSM stacks historical samples into period-aligned batches, where forecasting is causally supported by historical and current observations. Temporal, variable, and historical scanning are designed to capture axial temporal dependencies, variable correlations, and historical evolution. This structure is hierarchically shared to model seasonal to extreme events while alleviating misalignment across historical patterns. TSSM achieves SOTA performance on Weather-5K, the largest station weather dataset to date, with 10% and 61% gains in accuracy and extreme event metrics, and obtains 95% best or second-best results on human-involved datasets. Its advantages are more pronounced in long-horizon and iterative forecasting, reaching a 37.5% gain at 240h and up to 103.5% under a 48h times 5 iterative setting. Moreover, TSSM retains > 90% performance under up to 80% missing observations, compared with < 43% for baselines, demonstrating robustness and practical potential for reliable GSWF in global in-situ observation networks.

气象预报状态空间模型长时序预测数据缺失

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