用风险预算筛选故障,兼顾速度与安全,适应控制器变化。
Audited Selective Verification for Risk-Controlled N-1 Thermal Contingency Screening under Deployment Shift

- 用廉价代理模型选跳过部分故障,再抽样全量潮流验证
- 实测违规率低于预算,且在控制策略变化下仍可靠
- 适合实时调度系统,尤其控制器可能变动的场景
电力管理系统中的实时N-1故障筛查面临保证与成本的权衡:全面潮流计算过慢,而快速灵敏度筛查无统计保障,易漏掉危险运行点,尤其在控制器将系统带入陌生状态时。本文提出审计式选择性验证,作为任意控制器输出(优化、模型预测或学习型)的风控筛查层。廉价代理模型决定跳过哪些故障;在线审计每周期随机抽样少量故障进行全量潮流计算;校准阈值在指定风险预算和置信度下,保证被跳过的故障集热负荷越限率上限,并给出未验证但可信子集的相应上限。该方法有效性基于真实验证与审计,而非代理模型精度,因此在任意部署偏移下依然成立。它是一种风险预算筛查,而非政策要求全覆盖时的替代方案。在三个公开输电系统(最大1354节点)上,实际违规率始终低于预算,标准确定性和校准筛查在部署偏移下失效,该方法使每次实时运行的全量潮流计算减少29%至75%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Real-time N-1 contingency screening in an energy management system trades assurance against cost: verifying every credible outage with full power flow is too slow, while fast linear-sensitivity screening gives no statistical guarantee and can silently pass unsafe operating points, especially when a controller drives the system into unfamiliar regimes. This paper introduces Audited Selective Verification, a risk-budgeted screening and triage layer for any controller's output (optimization, model-predictive, or learned). A cheap surrogate proposes which outages to skip; an online audit runs full power flow on a small random sample each window; and a calibrated threshold certifies a thermal-violation-rate bound for the skipped set at a chosen budget and confidence, with a corresponding bound for the unverified trusted subset. Validity rests on real verification and the audit rather than on surrogate accuracy, so it holds under arbitrary deployment shift. It is a risk-budgeted screen, not a replacement for deterministic verification when policy requires checking every credible contingency. On three public transmission systems up to 1354 buses, the realized violation rate stays within budget, standard deterministic and calibrated screens become unsafe under shift, and the method cuts full power-flow studies by 29 to 75 percent per real-time operating point.
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