arXiv:2607.13548cs.AI2026-07

提出结构化多智能体系统,提升复杂系统故障根因分析准确率。

How Far Can Root Cause Analysis Go on Real-World Telemetry Data?

论文配图:How Far Can Root Cause Analysis Go on Real-World Telemetry Data?
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 设计结构化多智能体流程,支持带领域知识与无知识两种模式。
  • 在真实数据集上显著超越现有方法,错误主要源于推理能力而非数据缺失。
  • 通过反向推理识别瓶颈,自动挖掘判别规则,减少人工知识依赖。

定位生产环境中微服务故障的根因需处理大规模、多模态遥测数据(指标、日志、链路),该问题对传统方法和基于大模型的方法均具挑战性。OpenRCA 数据集代表了这一难题:规模大、多模态、缺乏详细领域知识,且所有现有方法表现一致偏低。我们发现经典因果发现方法与现有基于大模型的多智能体系统在该基准上无法可靠识别根因,并提出一种结构化多智能体根因分析(RCA)流水线,显著优于现有大模型与经典基线,支持带领域知识与无知识运行模式。为诊断故障来源,引入反向推理智能体,给定正确答案后,判断提取的异常信号是否支持结论,并判断第一阶段是否获取这些信号,从而将失败分类为推理缺口(证据存在但未使用)或数据模糊(证据真正缺失)。分析显示,绝大多数故障中所需证据实际存在:瓶颈不在数据获取,而在智能体的推理能力。我们进一步提出自动化规则挖掘流程,从反向推理报告中系统提取判别规则,降低对人工知识整理的依赖。在所有配置下,模型推理能力和领域知识是主要限制因素:更强模型嵌入更多领域知识,显式注入知识可部分弥补差距。即使证据提取完美,推理性能仍受实践上限制约:仅靠架构工程和更好的数据管道无法突破此瓶颈;进步必须来自模型层面改进。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Identifying root causes in production microservice failures requires reasoning over large-scale, multimodal telemetry spanning metrics, logs, and traces, a problem that has proved resistant to both classical and LLM-based approaches. The OpenRCA dataset exemplifies these challenges: it is large-scale, multimodal, and lacks detailed domain knowledge, and yields consistently low accuracy across all existing methods. We show that classical causal discovery methods and existing LLM-based multi-agent systems fail to reliably identify root causes on this benchmark, and present a Structured Multi-Agent RCA pipeline that substantially outperforms existing LLM-based and classical baselines, supporting both domain-knowledge and knowledge-free operating modes. To diagnose where failures originate, we introduce a reverse reasoning agent that, given the correct answer, identifies which signals in the extracted anomalies support it and determines whether Stage~1 had access to those signals, classifying each failure as Reasoning Gap (evidence present but unused) or Data Ambiguity (evidence genuinely absent). This analysis reveals that the required evidence is present in the vast majority of failures: the bottleneck is not data access but the agent's ability to reason over it correctly. We further introduce an automated rule mining pipeline that systematically extracts discrimination rules from reverse reasoning reports, reducing reliance on manual knowledge curation. Across all configurations, model reasoning capability and domain knowledge are the primary constraints: stronger models embed more domain expertise, and explicit knowledge injection partially compensates for this gap. Reasoning performance remains practically bounded even when evidence extraction is perfect: scaffold engineering and better data pipelines alone cannot close this gap; progress requires improvements at the model level.

根因分析多智能体大模型故障诊断

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