arXiv:2607.13651cs.CV2026-07

预测卫星图像是否可用,提升云层遮挡下的地球观测效率

From Surface Forecasting to Observability Forecasting: A Latent World Model for Cloud-Aware EO Monitoring

论文配图:From Surface Forecasting to Observability Forecasting: A Latent World Model for Cloud-Aware EO Monitoring
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用联合嵌入世界模型预测未来图像的可见性
  • 准确率比传统方法高近一倍,首次可用时间预测更精准
  • 适合遥感、气象监测等需要持续观测的场景

地球观测流程的瓶颈不在于新影像的到来,而在于影像抵达时地表是否可见。本文将此问题建模为EarthNet2021上的可观测性预测任务:基于近期多光谱影像与外部气象驱动因子,预测下一次获取是否可用,若不可用则预估何时可恢复可用视图。我们采用LeWorldModel——一种联合嵌入式预测架构的世界模型,适配云感知的地球观测序列。最终流水线将原始小立方体转换为包含五通道(蓝、绿、红、近红外、云掩膜)和八项气象及日历协变量的周期性HDF5序列。模型共1800万可训练参数,在23,904个训练样本上从头训练。评估采用锁定协议:仅在训练集上拟合线性探测器,校准选择基于内部验证集,随后冻结头部用于验证集、独立同分布(IID)、域外(OOD)及极端情况测试。在全冻结包可观测性基准上,LeWorldModel始终优于基线持久性模型。对于下一步可用性预测,平衡准确率在0.769至0.887之间,远超持久性的0.493至0.556;对于首次可用时间精确预测,准确率在0.602至0.806之间,显著高于持久性的0.120至0.369。相比在同一训练窗口上拟合的冻结LightGBM基线,LeWorldModel在连续清晰/云量回归及精确恢复时间预测上表现更优,而后者在更简单的‘六小时内是否有可用图像’二分类任务上更强且对域外数据更鲁棒。诊断分析显示,该模型在合成时间不一致条件下仍能生成有效的异常排名信号。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The bottleneck of Earth Observation processing chains is not the arrival of new imagery but whether the surface is actually visible when the image arrives. We study this as an observability forecasting problem on EarthNet2021. Given recent multispectral imagery and exogenous weather drivers, the goal is to predict whether the next acquisition will be usable and, if not, when a usable view is likely to return. To do this, we adapt LeWorldModel, a joint-embedding predictive architecture world model, to cloud-aware Earth Observation sequences. The final pipeline converts raw minicubes into episodic HDF5 sequences with five image channels (blue, green, red, near-infrared, cloud mask) and eight meteorological and calendar covariates. The resulting model has 18.0M trainable parameters and is trained from scratch on 23,904 training episodes. The trained leWorldModel is evaluated under a locked protocol: linear probes are fit on train only, calibration choices are set on an internal validation split, and the fitted heads are then frozen for valsplit, IID, OOD, and extreme evaluation. On the full frozen-bundle observability benchmark, LeWorldModel consistently outperforms persistence. For next-step usability, balanced accuracy ranges from 0.769 to 0.887, compared with 0.493 to 0.556 for persistence. For exact first-usable-horizon prediction, accuracy ranges from 0.602 to 0.806, compared with 0.120 to 0.369 for persistence. Against a frozen LightGBM baseline fit on the same training windows, LeWorldModel is better on continuous clear/cloud regression and on exact recovery timing on valsplit, IID, and extreme, while LightGBM is stronger on the simpler binary any-usable-within-six task and is more robust on OOD. In separate sampled diagnostic analyses, LeWM also produces strong ranking-based anomaly signals under synthetic temporal inconsistencies.

地球观测云感知预测模型遥感

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