用开放地理数据训练可解释模型,精准预测卫星地面站选址的障碍物高度。
Explainable Geospatial AI for Satellite Ground Station Siting Using LiDAR-Derived Terrain Intelligence

- 基于LiDAR与多源遥感数据,用LightGBM建模预测75%分位障碍物高度
- 误差比国际标准降低60%以上,均方误差1.79米,决定系数R²达0.765
- 通过SHAP分析揭示树冠覆盖等关键影响因素,适合频谱规划与全球部署
代表性的杂波高度(RCH)是无线传播与干扰分析的关键参数,反映本地遮挡物主导高度,直接影响终端杂波损耗。现有方法依赖国际电信联盟推荐书P.452-18中按土地利用类别设定的固定杂波高度,忽略类别内差异,导致选址排除区过于保守、站点排名不准确。本文提出一种可解释、可全球部署的机器学习框架,利用美国地质调查局3D高程计划的LiDAR标注数据训练模型,输入特征包括全球土地覆盖、地形、人口、热力及光学遥感产品。采用稳健的75%分位数定义RCH,评估多种回归器后选用LightGBM,兼顾精度、效率与特征归因能力。模型均方误差为1.79米,决定系数R²=0.765,相较ITU基线绝对误差降低超60%。除整体拟合外,还评估了米级误差、容差带准确性、过高/过低估计尾部、与ITU杂波高度分区的一致性以及基于SHAP的物理合理性。SHAP分析表明树冠覆盖率、土地覆盖语义和光谱反射率是最主要预测因子。通过分割特征分析、非森林消融实验及国际匹配验证,证明开放地理数据可在保持可解释性与可部署性的前提下,实现大尺度杂波建模优化。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Representative clutter height (RCH) is a key parameter in radio propagation and interference analysis because it captures the dominant height of local obstructions that drive terminal clutter loss. Current practice often relies on fixed clutter heights assigned to land use classes in Recommendation ITU-R P.452-18, but this misses within class variation and can lead to conservative exclusion zones and poor site ranking for low Earth orbit ground station siting and spectrum coordination. We present an interpretable, globally deployable machine learning framework for predicting RCH from open geospatial data. The model is trained using LiDAR derived labels from the U.S. Geological Survey 3D Elevation Program and inference time features from global land-cover, terrain, demographic, thermal, and optical remote sensing products. We define RCH using a robust 75th percentile clutter height statistic, evaluate multiple regressors, and select LightGBM for its accuracy, efficiency, and compatibility with feature attribution analysis. The final model achieves a mean absolute error of 1.79m and an R^2=0.765, reducing absolute error by more than 60% relative to the ITU baseline. Beyond aggregate fit, we evaluate domain facing criteria relevant to RF planning, including meter scale error, tolerance band accuracy, over and under estimation tails, agreement with ITU clutter height regimes, and SHAP-based physical plausibility. SHAP identifies tree canopy cover, land-cover semantics, and spectral reflectance as the most influential predictors. Studies on segmentation derived features, non-forest ablations, and land-cover matched international validation show that open geospatial data can improve clutter modeling at scale without sacrificing interpretability or deployability.
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