arXiv:2607.14197cs.AI2026-07

AI问答引擎在冲突信息中易出错,越冷门的冲突越容易编造事实。

How Artificial Intelligence LLM Engines Shape the Global Conflict Information Environment

  • 用5460条回答对比28个冲突的实证数据,发现信息越少越易虚构
  • 信息稀疏的冲突中,错误率高达37%,且存在系统性偏差
  • 适合关注AI误判、信息战与国际关系研究者阅读

人工智能问答引擎正越来越多地回应关于和平与冲突问题的询问。大型语言模型在特定条件下会生成虚假信息,但这些错误在涉及冲突议题时是否有可识别模式?为此,我们向五个主流问答引擎提出关于28个冲突的一系列问题,对5,460条回答与已知事实进行比对。结果显示,某一冲突可获取的公开记录越少,引擎就越倾向于编造、错引和错计。信息稀疏不仅助长幻觉,还使系统易受生成式引擎优化(GEO)影响,从而被人为扭曲以偏见性引导输出。通过对1,048个被AI引用的网站分析,发现GEO源优化已实际发生;尽管国家党派数字控制尚处初期,但增长迅速。本文探讨这些发现对学术研究的影响,呼吁回归深度本地监测与基于翻译的研究,强调此类工作是当前AI无法替代的,并展望该快速演进领域的未来挑战与研究机遇。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Artificial Intelligence (AI) answer engines now field a growing share of the questions that analysts, scholars, and the public ask about issues of peace and conflict. Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to hallucinate under certain conditions, but do these errors have discernible patterns when they are asked about conflicts, and if so what can that teach us about the changing global conflict information environment? To answer, we first asked a battery of questions about 28 conflicts to five leading answer engines and scored their 5,460 answers against documented evidence. We found that the thinner the retrievable record around a given conflict, the more the engines invent, misattribute, and miscount. Thin records don't just encourage hallucination, but create structural exposure to mis- and disinformation, because they are the easiest records to warp through Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) to bias engine responses. Through an analysis of 1,048 websites that the AI LLMs pulled conflict facts from, we found that GEO source optimization is already happening, and while state-partisan digital capture remains incipient it is rapidly growing. We explain what these findings mean for scholarship with the rise of GEO information warfare, and for policy argue for a return to the deep local monitoring and translation-based research that AI tools cannot replicate, closing with a discussion of future research opportunities and challenges in this fast-moving space.

AI幻觉信息战冲突分析

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