arXiv:2607.14391cs.AI2026-07

对比多种模型预测埃及股市,发现GRU适合中长期,XGBoost适合短期。

A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Long and Short-Term Forecasting of the Egyptian Stock Market: A Focus on EGX30

论文配图:A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Long and Short-Term Forecasting of the Egyptian Stock Market: A Focus on EGX30
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用多种机器学习模型对比预测埃及EGX30指数走势。
  • GRU在1周至2个月预测中表现最优,XGBoost在1天内最佳。
  • 集成方法显著提升长期预测效果,KNN在长周期也表现意外出色。

本研究聚焦于预测埃及股市的EGX30指数走势,该指数是中东地区的重要金融指标。相比全球市场研究,发展中国家如埃及的股市预测需求日益增长。研究比较了多种机器学习模型在短、长期预测中的表现,基于历史EGX30数据,采用均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和决定系数(R²)等指标评估。模型包括K-近邻(KNN)、随机森林、极端梯度提升(XGBoost)、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)和门控循环单元网络(GRU)。结果表明:在1周、1月及2月预测中,GRU表现最优;而在1日预测中,XGBoost领先。集成方法在长期预测中效果更佳,使预测精度提升达GRU的5倍。此外,KNN在长期预测中表现超出预期,显示其在金融科技领域仍有潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study concentrates on predicting stock prices in the Egyptian market, focusing on the EGX30, an influential financial hub in the Middle East. While most research focuses on global stocks, there's a growing need to understand stock trends in developing countries like Egypt. The study compares different machine learning models for forecasting EGX30 trends, covering short and long-term predictions. Using historical EGX30 data, including metrics like root mean squared error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and coefficient of determination, models like K-Nearest Neighbours, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, long short-term memory networks, and gated recurrent unit networks were evaluated. The goal is to determine the most effective models for EGX30 prediction, considering Egypt's unique market dynamics. Insights from this study aid investors in making informed decisions. Results show that the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) outperformed the other models in the one-week, one-month, and two-months while the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model outperformed others in the one-day predictions, highlighting their usefulness in predictive analysis for financial markets. The study also showed the importance of using the ensemble techniques, especially in the long-term predictions which proved better results reaching 5 times the GRU in the two-month predictions. Additionally, the study notes the surprisingly good performance of K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) on long-term predictions, suggesting its enduring relevance and potential for future applications in the fintech domains.

股票预测GRUXGBoost埃及股市

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