arXiv:2607.15229cs.LGmath.OC2026-07

基于数据学习最优设备更换周期,降低维护成本。

Data Driven Block Replacement Scheduling

论文配图:Data Driven Block Replacement Scheduling
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用带置信区间的强化学习方法自动选最佳更换间隔
  • 理论证明可达到近最优的累计损失,且长期表现稳定
  • 适合工业设备维护、供应链管理等需要长期优化的场景

我们针对N台独立同质设备在块更换策略下的维护问题,提出数据驱动算法以学习未知寿命分布下的最优更换周期k*。每轮决策中,操作者选择间隔k∈{1,2,…,K},观察包含完整与右删失寿命的数据,承担由更新函数决定的单位时间成本。该问题被建模为随机多臂赌博机,提出基于Hoeffding与Bernstein的置信下界算法,实现O(K log T)的遗憾,匹配Lai-Robbins下界。利用块更换特有的嵌套观测特性,相关变体达到O((K-k*)log T)遗憾,且只需常数次直接尝试劣质策略。此外,一种互补的Kaplan-Meier更新算法非参数估计寿命分布,实现几乎必然策略一致性,并在长周期下实证呈现近乎零的增量遗憾。我们还分析了两种平均成本马尔可夫决策过程:时间流逝模型证明块更换在其策略类中对任意寿命分布均最优;年龄向量模型在递增故障率下揭示单调阈值结构,并提供基准成本。数值实验验证了理论排序,并揭示最优块更换与年龄依赖更换之间的结构性成本差距。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We develop data-driven algorithms for maintaining $N$ independent identical machines under a \textit{block replacement policy}, in which each machine is replaced upon failure and all machines are jointly replaced at regular intervals of length $k$. The goal is to learn the cost-minimizing interval $k^*$ from operational data when the lifetime distribution is unknown. At each decision epoch, the operator selects $k \in \{1, 2, \ldots, K\}$, observes the resulting failure history (a mixture of complete and right-censored lifetimes) and incurs a per-unit-time cost governed by the renewal function. We formulate this as a stochastic multi-armed bandit and propose Hoeffding- and Bernstein-based lower-confidence-bound algorithms achieving $O(K \log T)$ regret, matching the Lai--Robbins lower bound. Exploiting a nested observation property unique to block replacement, correlated variants attain $O((K-k^*)\log T)$ regret and require only $O(1)$ direct pulls of suboptimal arms $k < k^*$. A complementary Kaplan--Meier renewal algorithm estimates the lifetime distribution nonparametrically from censored data, achieving almost-sure policy consistency and empirically near-zero incremental regret at long horizons. We additionally analyze two average-cost MDPs: a time-elapsed formulation establishing that block replacement is optimal within its policy class for any lifetime distribution, and an age-vector formulation proving a monotone threshold structure under increasing failure rate distributions and providing a gold-standard cost benchmark. Numerical experiments confirm the theoretical ordering and reveal structural cost gaps between optimal block and age-dependent replacement.

设备维护强化学习优化

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