arXiv:2607.15254cs.AIcs.HC2026-07中稿 · NeurIPS

用自然语言分析城市行车数据,探索天气如何影响交通密度。

teLLMe Why (Ain't Nothing but a Jam): Exploratory Causal Analysis of Urban Driving Data

论文配图:teLLMe Why (Ain't Nothing but a Jam): Exploratory Causal Analysis of Urban Driving Data
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于行车记录仪数据构建事件表,结合因果推断算法
  • 能回答如‘下雨时车流量变化’等自然语言问题
  • 适合交通研究者做假设生成,不作最终结论依据

交通管理部门如今可获取大量来自视频的观测数据,用于研究交通安全与拥堵问题。这些数据多为无干预的观察性数据,难以回答因果问题,如“下雨会如何影响交通密度?”。本文提出teLLMe系统,用于探索性因果分析城市驾驶数据。系统从行车记录仪标注的结构化事件表出发,结合因果结构学习、PC算法、基于自助法的稳定性检验,以及使用线性回归和DoWhy进行查询特定效应估计。自然语言问题通过感知模式的LLM映射为结构化因果查询,支持用户指定处理变量、结果变量和子群体。teLLMe返回包含效应估计、调整集、DAG支持度和假设说明的“因果卡”,并附简明自然语言解释。在基于BDD的数据上开展案例研究,系统成功揭示了天气、高峰时段与交通密度之间的合理关联,同时明确展示不确定性与建模选择。该系统定位为假设生成与专家推理工具,而非确定性因果结论来源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Traffic agencies now have access to large volumes of video-derived data for studying safety and congestion. Most of these data are observational and collected without interventions, which makes causal questions such as "How would rain change traffic density?" difficult to answer. We present teLLMe, a system for exploratory causal analysis of urban driving datasets. The system starts from a structured event table built from dashcam annotations and combines causal structure learning with the PC algorithm, bootstrap-based stability checks, and query-specific effect estimation using linear regression and DoWhy. Natural-language questions are mapped to structured causal queries through a schema-aware LLM, enabling users to specify treatments, outcomes, and subpopulations. teLLMe returns a "Causal Card" that summarizes effect estimates, adjustment sets, DAG support, and assumptions, followed by a short natural-language explanation. Case studies on BDD-derived traffic events show that the system can surface plausible relationships involving weather, peak hours, and traffic density, while making uncertainty and modeling choices explicit. The system is designed as a tool for hypothesis generation and expert reasoning rather than a source of definitive causal claims.

因果推断交通数据自然语言查询城市交通

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