用智能体框架生成有数据支撑的疫情叙事,避免大模型幻觉。
EpiNarrate: Agentic Generation of Grounded Narratives from Epidemiological Scenario Projections

- 分步处理:先建多维数据结构,再生成逻辑一致的描述
- 在新冠情景建模枢纽上实现更全面且无矛盾的叙述
- 适合公共卫生决策者和科普作者快速生成可信报告
清晰易懂的公共卫生叙事对向政策制定者和公众传达复杂的流行病预测至关重要。这类叙事不仅需要报告数字,还需在多个维度上进行上下文关联和定量支撑。然而,预测常来自包含干预假设、地理与人口分层、结果指标、时间跨度及不确定性分位数的大规模集成数据集。直接使用大语言模型(LLMs)总结此类数据往往导致不一致、遗漏和行为脆弱。我们提出一种智能体框架(EpiNarrate),将结构化数值推理与自然语言生成分离。该框架首先提取情景轴并构建偏序结构,系统遍历多维空间;随后通过比较语法构建符合语义与算术一致性的量化陈述,并基于最大熵原则设计有趣性驱动的选择机制以平衡覆盖度与冗余度。在新冠情景建模枢纽(COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub)上的实验表明,该模型生成的叙事具有更强的事实依据和更广的显著流行病模式覆盖,同时保持专家写作风格。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Generation of clear and accessible public health narratives is critical for communicating complex epidemiological projections to policymakers and the general public at large. Such narratives require more than simply reporting numbers: projections must be contextualized and quantitatively grounded across multiple dimensions. Further, projections are often derived from large ensemble datasets which combine intervention assumptions, geographic and demographic strata, outcomes, time horizons, and uncertainty quantiles. However, directly using large language models (LLMs) to summarize and contextualize such data often leads to inconsistencies, omissions, and fragile behavior. We introduce an agentic framework (EpiNarrate) for public health report generation that separates structured numerical reasoning from natural-language generation. The framework first extracts scenario axes and organizes them into a partial-order schema, enabling systematic traversal of the underlying multidimensional space. It then constructs an augmented dataset and derives valid quantitative statements through a comparison grammar that enforces semantic and arithmetic consistency. To balance coverage and non-redundancy, we introduce an interestingness-driven selection mechanism based on maximum-entropy principles. Experiments on the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub demonstrate that our model produces narratives with improved factual grounding and broader coverage of salient epidemiological patterns, while preserving the style of expert-written reports.
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