基于航行规则的船舶轨迹预测，速度快且符合国际避碰规则。
Vessel Trajectory Prediction using COLREGs-aware Optimal Planning
- 从每艘周边船视角出发进行分步规划，先用A*生成初始路径。
- 通过数值优化确保预测轨迹符合COLREGs避碰规则，提升合规性。
- 仅需当前位置、速度和目的地，适合实时场景快速预测。
本文提出一种基于最优规划的海上船舶轨迹预测方法。首先利用A*搜索生成满足静态障碍物约束的粗略初始轨迹，作为可行的预热起点；随后通过数值优化确保轨迹符合国际海上避碰规则（COLREGs）。预测问题从每一艘邻近船舶的视角建模为序列轨迹规划，仅需其当前位置、速度和目的地作为输入。由于目的地信息已包含在AIS数据中，该方法可比依赖长时序数据的学习型方法实现更快的预测。所提方法在基于真实AIS数据构建的多个海事场景中进行了验证。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper presents a trajectory prediction method for marine vessels based on optimal planning. Crude initial trajectories respecting static obstacles are first generated using A*-search to provide a feasible warm start. In the second step, a numerical optimizer is used to ensure COLREG compliance. The prediction problem is posed as sequential trajectory planning from the perspective of each surrounding vessel, requiring only their current positions, velocities, and intended destinations as input. As the latter is included in AIS messages, this enables faster predictions than learning-based methods that typically require longer data histories. The proposed method is validated using real-world scenarios constructed from AIS data.
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