arXiv:2607.16168cs.LG2026-07

用行为特征提升家庭用电量预测精度,支持多场景自适应预报。

Behaviour-Conditioned Neural Processes for Adaptive Residential Short-Term Load Forecasting

论文配图:Behaviour-Conditioned Neural Processes for Adaptive Residential Short-Term Load Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过隐变量建模用户行为,动态调节预测过程
  • 在有限上下文下仍保持7.9%的误差降低
  • 无需标签即可实现跨家庭、多时序的精准预测

住宅短时负荷预测(STLF)因家庭用电需求异质性高、时间变化大且受多样化行为模式影响而极具挑战。本文探索将推断出的行为结构嵌入基于神经过程的概率模型中,而非仅作为外部分组信号,以实现上下文条件下的自适应住宅短时负荷预测。提出一种行为条件化的注意力神经过程框架,将每个用电曲线视为独立预测任务。离散隐变量从上下文推断出用户行为类别,并用于条件化解码器;连续隐变量则捕捉不同用户间的共性不确定性。训练阶段利用聚类结果提供弱监督,测试阶段仅依赖上下文推断的行为分布进行条件化。在Smart Grid, Smart City(SGSC)数据集上,采用用户互斥的训练/验证/测试划分,设置可变上下文长度与多步预测窗口,对比无标签的ANP基线和固定窗口确定性基线。所提方法在各预测时长与上下文条件下均优于ANP,尤其在上下文有限时提升显著,最优版本平均降低7.9% MAE和6.9% CRPS。相较固定窗口基线,在所有预测时长上均取得更低的RMSE,同时保持竞争力的MAE,表明在异质用电模式下更少出现大偏差。结果支持单一模型实现跨家庭、上下文与时长的不确定性感知预测。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Residential short-term load forecasting (STLF) is challenging because household demand is heterogeneous, temporally variable, and shaped by diverse behavioural routines. This work investigates whether inferred behavioural structure can be embedded within the forecasting mechanism of a Neural Process-based probabilistic model, rather than used only as an external grouping signal, for context-conditioned residential STLF. We propose a behaviour-conditioned Attentive Neural Process framework that treats each load profile as a forecasting task. Behavioural structure is represented by a discrete latent variable inferred from the available context and used for behaviour-conditioned decoder conditioning, while a continuous latent variable captures shared functional uncertainty across heterogeneous profiles. To enable conditioning without ground-truth behavioural labels, clustering-derived information provides weak supervision during training, whereas test-time conditioning relies only on context-inferred class distributions. Experiments on the Smart Grid, Smart City (SGSC) dataset use user-disjoint train/validation/test splits, variable context lengths, and multi-step forecast horizons, with comparisons against a label-agnostic ANP baseline and fixed-window deterministic STLF baselines. The proposed variants improve MAE and CRPS over ANP across horizons and context settings, with the largest gains under limited context. The best-performing variant achieves average reductions of 7.9% in MAE and 6.9% in CRPS relative to ANP. Compared with fixed-window baselines, this variant achieves lower RMSE across all evaluated horizons while maintaining competitive MAE, suggesting fewer large prediction deviations under heterogeneous consumption patterns. These results support single-model, uncertainty-aware forecasting across heterogeneous households, contexts, and horizons.

负荷预测神经过程行为建模不确定性

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