让非专家也能一键完成地震风险评估，结果精准且透明。
An Agentic Interface for End-to-End Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis
- 用大模型做调度员，调用开源引擎自动完成从地震到损失的全流程计算
- 73个城市验证，475年重现期地震强度误差中位数仅5%，分钟级出结果
- 支持自定义地震波模型，还能算建筑级损失和加固对比，适合政策与保险人员
概率性地震危险与风险分析是建筑规范、保险定价和灾害管理的核心。然而，现有流程依赖专家操作，难以普及。本文提出首个面向端到端地震危险与风险分析的智能代理接口，基于开源服务器，通过模型上下文协议（MCP）接入。MCP封装了OpenQuake引擎及2020年欧洲地震危险与风险模型，提供24个类型化接口。其中，代理由大语言模型（LLM）与工具构成，负责规划、翻译与解释，而计算任务由OpenQuake引擎和定制代码完成。每次输出均包含源模型、地面运动模型（GMM）和经认证的数据溯源信息以保障透明度。在73个城市的基准测试中，475年重现期谱加速度的中位误差为5%，完整危险到损失估算可在分钟内完成。该接口还支持用户自定义经验或机器学习型GMM，覆盖所有已发布构造区类型，并新增条件谱、确定性情景、地表危险、单栋建筑损失、加固效果对比及波形检索等功能，现有网络服务尚无此能力。该设计可迁移至其他区域模型与其他灾害场景。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analyses are backbone to building codes, insurance pricing, and disaster management. Yet their open-engine pipelines remain accessible primarily to experts. We present the first agentic interface to the end-to-end probabilistic seismic hazard and risk chain via an open-source server, addressable through the Model Context Protocol (MCP). MCP wraps the OpenQuake engine and the 2020 European Seismic Hazard and Risk Models using twenty-four typed endpoints. Here, an agent is defined as a large language model (LLM) with tools. LLM is confined to the role of an orchestrator so it plans, translates, and explains, while the OpenQuake engine and custom codes compute hazard values, damage probability, and loss. Each response carries source-model, ground-motion model (GMM), and certified data provenance for transparency. Results are benchmarked against ESHM20 at seventy-three cities, the replicated 475-year spectral accelerations match official values within a median of 5 %, and a full hazard-to-loss estimate runs in minutes. The interface additionally accepts a user-supplied empirical or machine-learning GMM on any tectonic region type of the published tree, and adds additional features that existing web services omit: conditional spectra, deterministic scenarios, surface hazard, per-building loss, retrofit comparison, and record selection with waveform retrieval. The proposed design layers transfer to other regional models, and to other hazards.
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