arXiv:2607.16681cs.LG2026-07

用自监督学习提升重症感染早期预测,仅需少量生物指标即可达到顶尖效果。

A Framework for Early Sepsis Prediction via Self-Supervised (JEPA) and Federated Representation Learning

论文配图:A Framework for Early Sepsis Prediction via Self-Supervised (JEPA) and Federated Representation Learning
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 采用自监督JEPA与联邦表示学习框架,通过掩码隐变量预测建模时序数据。
  • 最佳模型在发病时刻AUPRC达0.636,仅用83%的生物标志物接近最优基准。
  • 预训练编码器在时间跨度上更稳定,适合临床中长期监测场景。

从电子健康记录中早期预测脓毒症面临采样不规则、缺失率高和类别不平衡的挑战。本文系统比较四种建模范式:基于掩码隐变量预测的自监督联合嵌入预测架构(JEPA)、使用双视图增强的自监督VICReg、VICReg预训练编码器的半监督微调,以及监督式时序卷积网络(TCN),均采用相同的预处理流程——将7个通过稀疏性分析选出的生物标志物按小时分箱并前向填充,数据来自MIMIC-III数据集。最佳模型(JEPA + XGBoost + 均值池化)在发病时刻(H0)的AUPRC为0.636,接近SupMix基准(0.667),且仅使用83%的生物标志物。一级流程(VICReg预训练+半监督微调+XGBoost)在H0时AUPRC达0.510,较原始特征基线(0.165)提升3.1倍,较端到端监督TCN(0.474)提升7.6%。关键发现:微调后的VICReg编码器具有最强的时间持续性,从H0到H10仅退化16.8%,显著优于监督TCN的47.5%和JEPA的65.3%,表明任务感知的微调能生成既敏锐又稳健的表征。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Early sepsis prediction from electronic health records is challenged by irregular sampling, high missingness, and class imbalance. We systematically compare four modeling paradigms -- self-supervised Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) via masked latent prediction, self-supervised VICReg (variance-invariance-covariance regularization) with two-view augmentation, semi-supervised fine-tuning of a VICReg-pretrained encoder, and supervised Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) -- alongside raw-feature baselines. All models share a common preprocessing pipeline of hourly binning with forward-fill imputation applied to 7 biomarkers selected via sparsity analysis from the MIMIC-III dataset. Our best model (JEPA + XGBoost + mean pooling) achieves AUPRC 0.636 at the time of onset (H0), approaching the SupMix benchmark (0.667) while using 83\% fewer biomarkers. The Tier 1 pipeline -- VICReg pretraining followed by semi-supervised fine-tuning and XGBoost -- achieves AUPRC 0.510 at H0, a 3.1$\times$ improvement over the raw-feature baseline (0.165) and a 7.6\% improvement over the end-to-end supervised TCN (0.474). Crucially, the fine-tuned VICReg encoder exhibits the most temporally persistent representations, degrading only 16.8\% from H0 to H10 compared to 47.5\% for supervised TCN and 65.3\% for JEPA, demonstrating that self-supervised pretraining with task-aware fine-tuning yields features that are both sharp near onset and robust across prediction horizons.

脓毒症预测自监督学习医疗表征时序建模

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