arXiv:2607.16714eess.IV2026-07

用卫星数据+气象地形,统一预测植被含水量,助力火灾管理。

A Unified Multisensor Machine-Learning Framework for Live Fuel Moisture Content Retrieval

论文配图:A Unified Multisensor Machine-Learning Framework for Live Fuel Moisture Content Retrieval
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 融合多源卫星、气象与地形数据,构建统一机器学习模型。
  • 草地、灌木、树木的预测精度分别达R² 0.715、0.693、0.700。
  • 可扩展至新传感器,只需匹配波段与重叠观测数据。

活燃料含水量(Live Fuel Moisture Content, LFMC)是控制植被易燃性的关键变量,对火灾管理至关重要。然而由于地面观测集中在特定区域,大范围估算仍具挑战。本文提出一种统一的机器学习框架,基于卫星植被指数、气象变量、地形与季节性因子估算LFMC。将GlobeLFMC 2.0数据与Terra/Aqua MODIS、VIIRS、Landsat 8/9、Sentinel-2和Sentinel-3地表反射率产品匹配,结合长期MODIS记录与高分辨率近期数据。为应对传感器差异,光学特征被限制在共同的红光、近红外与短波红外特征空间;筛选站点-产品组合与场站时间序列以确保遥感适用性;并结合光谱响应函数诊断与目标无关的经验反射率校准,建立以Sentinel-2为参考域的方法。初步单产品实验表明,天气、地形与周期性日期提供超越植被指数的主要预测增益,而产品特异性预测因子未带来足够收益。分别使用随机森林与XGBoost训练草、灌木与树的独立模型。在主验证设计下(剔除训练中站点的观测日期),最佳模型的总体R²分别为0.715(草)、0.693(灌木)、0.700(树)。该框架可在具备兼容波段、明确光谱响应及足够重叠观测时,集成额外光学传感器。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Live fuel moisture content controls vegetation flammability and is a high-importance variable in fire management. Nevertheless, it remains difficult to estimate and map over large areas due to the concentration of field observations in specific regions. We develop a unified machine-learning framework that estimates live fuel moisture content from satellite vegetation indices, meteorological variables, topography and seasonal predictors. GlobeLFMC 2.0 measurements are matched to Terra and Aqua MODIS, VIIRS, Landsat 8/9, Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 surface-reflectance products, combining the long MODIS record with finer-resolution recent observations. To account for differences among sensors, optical predictors are restricted to a common red, near-infrared and shortwave-infrared feature space; site--product combinations and field time series are screened for remote-sensing suitability; and spectral response function diagnostics are combined with target-independent empirical reflectance calibration toward a Sentinel-2 reference domain. Preliminary single-product experiments show that weather, topography and cyclic day-of-year provide most of the predictive gain beyond vegetation indices, whereas optional product-specific predictors do not justify their additional dependencies. Separate Grass, Shrub and Tree models are trained with Random Forest and XGBoost regressors. Under the primary validation design, which withholds observation dates from sites represented in training, the best models achieve pooled R2 values of 0.715, 0.693 and 0.700 for Grass, Shrub and Tree, respectively. The framework can incorporate additional optical sensors when compatible reflectance bands, documented spectral responses and sufficient overlap observations are available for calibration and validation.

遥感火灾预测机器学习植被含水

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