arXiv:2607.16894cs.LG2026-07

用流匹配模型生成和预测动态网络的时变结构,比直接生成原始信号更准确。

TVGL-CFM:Generating and Forecasting Time-Varying Trajectories of Dynamic Networks with Conditional Flow Matching

论文配图:TVGL-CFM:Generating and Forecasting Time-Varying Trajectories of Dynamic Networks with Conditional Flow Matching
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将时变精度矩阵映射到平坦空间,用流匹配模型学习其分布
  • 在脑电、基因表达等数据上,预测精度优于原始信号基线
  • 适合需要生成或预测动态网络结构的研究者使用

许多复杂系统如脑网络、金融市场和基因调控回路并非由固定图结构描述,而是随时间演变。通常用稀疏精度矩阵(逆协方差矩阵)在每个时刻总结其结构,时间变异数图回归(TVGL)可将多变量信号转化为一系列平滑的精度矩阵。本文提出TVGL-CFM,一个统一模型,既能生成特定类别的真实时变网络轨迹,又能预测已观测轨迹的未来演化。每个精度矩阵位于正定矩阵的曲面空间中,但通过对数欧几里得坐标系可将其整体映射至普通向量空间,使简单的条件流匹配模型可在该空间训练与采样,且解码后矩阵始终为有效精度矩阵。预测时从近期历史的粗略外推开始,而非从噪声出发,使模型仅需学习微小修正。在脑电运动想象、混沌系统和基因表达数据上,TVGL-CFM生成的轨迹保持了真实数据的类别判别结构,且对未来连接性的预测优于基于原始信号的基线方法。因此,直接生成结构化的精度轨迹,比先生成原始信号再估计连接性更为精确。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Many complex systems such as brain networks, financial markets, and gene-regulatory circuits are described not by a fixed graph but by one that changes over time. A standard way to summarise such structure at each instant is the sparse precision (inverse-covariance) matrix, and the time-varying graphical lasso (TVGL) turns a multivariate signal into a smooth chain of these matrices. We introduce TVGL-CFM, a single model that learns the distribution of such chains and can both generate new, realistic time-varying network trajectories for a given class and forecast how an observed trajectory will continue. Each precision matrix lives on a curved space of positive-definite matrices, but a log-Euclidean chart flattens an entire trajectory into an ordinary vector space, so a simple conditional flow-matching model can be trained and sampled there while every decoded matrix is guaranteed to be a valid precision matrix. For forecasting we start the flow not from noise but from a rough extrapolation of the recent history, so the model only has to learn a small correction. Across EEG motor-imagery, chaotic systems, and gene-expression data, TVGL-CFM generates trajectories that keep the class-discriminative structure of real data, and it forecasts future connectivity more accurately than raw-signal baselines. Generating the structured precision trajectory directly is therefore more faithful than generating raw signals and estimating connectivity afterwards.

动态网络流匹配时变图精度矩阵

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