arXiv:2607.16969cs.LG2026-07

让设备寿命预测模型说出如何改进才能延寿,提升可解释性。

SurvCF(t): Counterfactual Explanations for Survival Analysis in Predictive Maintenance Multivariate Time Series Data

论文配图:SurvCF(t): Counterfactual Explanations for Survival Analysis in Predictive Maintenance Multivariate Time Series Data
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过约束优化找出最小且合理的操作调整方案
  • 在真实数据集上使预测寿命显著延长,验证可干预性
  • 适合需要可解释维护决策的工业场景

预测性维护依赖于对剩余使用寿命的精准估计,通常基于多变量时间序列数据进行生存分析。尽管现代深度生存模型具备优异的预测性能,但其黑箱特性限制了在安全关键场景中的应用,因缺乏可行动的解释。本文提出首个针对时序数据生存模型的反事实解释框架 SurvCF(t)。该框架识别出对资产运行历史的最小、合理且时间一致的修改,以延长其预测寿命,将解释问题建模为同时满足有效性、接近性、稀疏性和合理性约束的优化问题。我们在 C-MAPSS、N-CMAPSS 及 Scania Component_X 真实数据集上评估该方法,结果表明 SurvCF(t) 能生成可行动且可解释的干预策略。实验显示,该方法弥合了生存预测与处方式维护之间的鸿沟,推动面向决策的可解释 AI 在维护策略中的应用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predictive maintenance relies on accurate Remaining Useful Life estimation, often formulated using survival analysis over multivariate time-series data. While modern deep survival models achieve strong predictive performance, their black-box nature limits their use in safety-critical settings where actionable insight is required. In this work, we introduce \textit{SurvCF(t)}, the first framework for generating counterfactual explanations for survival models operating on time-series data. \textit{SurvCF(t)} identifies minimal, plausible, and temporally consistent changes to an asset's operational history that increase its predicted life time, framing explanation as a constrained optimization problem combining validity, proximity, sparsity, and plausibility. We evaluate the method on multiple benchmarks, including C-MAPSS, N-CMAPSS, and a real-world case study of the Scania Component\_X dataset, demonstrating its ability to produce actionable and interpretable interventions. Our results show that \textit{SurvCF(t)} bridges the gap between survival prediction and prescriptive maintenance, enabling explainable and decision-oriented AI for maintenance strategies.

生存分析反事实解释预测性维护时序数据

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