融合气象预报与风机数据,用傅里叶网络提升风电短期预测精度
Fourier Geometric Wind Power Forecasting with Numerical Weather Prediction

- 分离标量与矢量特征,用几何编码器提取风向无关特征
- 基于傅里叶神经算子实现频域全局卷积,捕捉长时空间依赖
- 在三个真实风电场验证,显著优于现有方法,适合电力系统应用
准确的短时风电预测对电网稳定和运行规划至关重要,但因大气条件与风机动力学的复杂相互作用而极具挑战。现有方法未能有效融合历史点式SCADA数据与网格化数值天气预报(NWP)数据,导致性能受限。为此,我们提出一种多模态框架,将历史SCADA数据与网格化NWP预报相结合。由于输入异构且存在复杂的物理风-机交互,该任务具有挑战性。我们的方法首先显式分解输入为标量与矢量特征,以更好捕捉站点特异性与几何依赖关系,并引入几何编码器提取风矢量的旋转不变特征。进一步采用傅里叶神经算子(FNO)架构,在频域执行全局卷积,高效建模长程时空关系。在三个真实风电场上的大量实验表明,本模型持续优于现有先进基线,验证了其物理启发设计的有效性。核心代码已公开:https://github.com/shawn-sypiao/GWPF。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is essential for grid stability and operational planning, yet remains challenging due to the complex interactions between atmospheric conditions and turbine dynamics. However, existing methods fail to effectively incorporate weather forecasting with wind turbine data (i.e., SCADA), leading to suboptimal solutions. To address this, we introduce a multimodal framework that integrates historical point-based SCADA data with grid-based Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, which is challenging due to heterogeneous input and the complex physical wind-turbine interactions. Our approach first explicitly decomposes inputs into scalar and vector features to better capture both site-specific and geometric dependencies and then incorporates a geometric encoder to extract rotation-invariant features from wind vectors. We further leverages a Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) architecture, which performs global convolutions in the frequency domain to efficiently model long-range spatiotemporal relationships. Extensive experiments on three real-world wind farms, with weather forecasting data, demonstrate that our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of its physically-informed design. The core implementation of our method is publicly available at: https://github.com/shawn-sypiao/GWPF.
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