Kuhn扑克中最大熵选择偏差实为可消除的曲率阴影,非固有偏见。
The Curvature Shadow: An Apparent Failure of Maximum-Entropy Equilibrium Selection is a Removable Artifact

- 通过曲率与熵亏损分解坐标差距,揭示偏差机制
- 实验证实偏差随熵亏损趋零而消失,符合理论预测
- 适合研究博弈均衡选择与优化动力学的学者
在纳什均衡构成凸集的双人零和博弈中,正则化求解器(如R-NaD)通常选出最大熵解,即均匀参考分布在纳什集上的信息投影(I-projection)。在小规模博弈中该匹配精确,唯独克努扑克(Kuhn poker)例外:R-NaD收敛于诈唬概率0.180,而最大熵解位于0.201,差距约0.021,尽管前者达到最大熵的99.7%。本文定量分析此差距是否为真实选择偏差或人为伪影。研究表明,在一维纳什流形上,坐标差距近似为√(2δ/κ),其中δ为求解器的熵亏损,κ为熵景观峰值处的曲率。五组博弈中该关系误差小于2×10⁻⁴(相对误差<1%)。四组矩阵博弈δ≈0(无差距),仅顺序博弈(克努扑克)δ>0。通过调节磁力强度使δ→0,差距沿预测曲线趋近零(拟合指数0.50,R²>0.999999,符合理论预测1/2),直至动态失稳于稳定下限;行为一致于可移除的熵亏,而非固定偏见。通过测量曲率量化该规律,并指出自然Tsallis熵实验中的动态目标陷阱。克努扑克的差距实为小熵亏损在异常平坦峰区的曲率阴影,信息投影解释在平坦度限制下仍成立。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In two-player zero-sum games whose Nash equilibria form a convex set, regularized solvers such as Regularized Nash Dynamics (R-NaD) empirically select the maximum-entropy member: the information projection (I-projection) of a uniform reference onto the Nash set. On a panel of small games this match is exact, with one apparent exception: in Kuhn poker R-NaD lands at bluff coordinate 0.180 while the maximum-entropy member sits at 0.201, a coordinate gap of about 0.021, even though R-NaD attains 99.7 percent of the maximum entropy. We ask whether this gap is a genuine selection bias or an artifact, and answer it quantitatively. We show that for selection on a one-dimensional Nash manifold the coordinate gap factorizes as $\mathrm{gap} \approx \sqrt{2δ/κ}$, where $δ$ is the entropy shortfall of the solver and $κ$ is the curvature of the entropy landscape at its peak. Across five games this relation holds to within $2 \times 10^{-4}$ (under 1 percent relative error). The four matrix games have $δ\approx 0$ (R-NaD reaches the maximum-entropy member exactly) and therefore no gap regardless of curvature; only the sequential game (Kuhn) has $δ> 0$. A causal sweep of the magnet strength drives $δ\to 0$ and the gap toward zero along the predicted curve (fitted scaling exponent 0.50, $R^2 > 0.999999$, against the exact prediction of 1/2), until the dynamics destabilize at a stability floor: behavior consistent with a removable shortfall and inconsistent with a fixed bias. We quantify the curvature half of the law from measured curvatures and flag a moving-target pitfall in the natural Tsallis-entropy experiment. The Kuhn gap is thus the curvature shadow of a small, removable entropy shortfall on an unusually flat peak; the I-projection account is upheld up to a flatness-limited residual.
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