arXiv:2607.17555cs.LG2026-07

通过考虑波动率结构,提升高频加密货币市场极端事件检测能力。

Volatility-Aware Extreme Event Detection in High-Frequency Financial Markets

论文配图:Volatility-Aware Extreme Event Detection in High-Frequency Financial Markets
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将极端事件定义为大收益与高波动并存的组合,增强样本信息量。
  • 相比基线方法,检测罕见事件的精确率-召回率曲线下面积提升六倍以上。
  • 适合关注高频金融风险预警的研究者与量化交易开发者。

由于非平稳性、重尾收益率分布和严重的类别不平衡,预测高频金融市场中的极端价格波动极具挑战。尤其是罕见但影响深远的事件,传统建模方法常将其视为孤立观测,难以有效识别。本研究提出一种基于波动率感知的极端事件检测方法,利用高频比特币限价订单簿数据。受波动率聚类的实证证据启发,目标定义扩展为同时包含未来大收益和高波动状态。这一重新定义显著提高了有信息量样本的比例,并使学习目标更契合市场动态。采用树模型(XGBoost)结合时间序列交叉验证和不平衡评估,所提方法实现约0.40的精准率-召回率曲线下面积(PR-AUC),远超基线方法约0.06的水平,检测性能提升超过六倍。结果表明,目标设计在金融机器学习中至关重要,其影响常超越模型复杂度本身。通过将波动率结构融入标注过程,该方法为高频加密货币市场的极端事件检测提供了更高效、更真实的框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting extreme price movements in high-frequency financial markets is a challenging task due to non-stationarity, heavy-tailed return distributions, and severe class imbalance. In particular, rare but impactful events are often difficult to detect using conventional modeling approaches, which typically treat extreme movements as isolated observations. This study proposes a volatility-aware approach for extreme event detection using high-frequency Bitcoin limit order book (LOB) data. Motivated by empirical evidence of volatility clustering, the target formulation is extended to incorporate both large future returns and high-volatility regimes. This redefinition increases the proportion of informative samples and aligns the learning objective with the underlying market dynamics. Using a tree-based model (XGBoost) with time-series cross-validation and imbalance-aware evaluation, the proposed method achieves a Precision-Recall AUC of approximately 0.40, significantly outperforming the baseline formulation with a PR-AUC of around 0.06. This represents more than a sixfold improvement in detecting rare events. The results highlight that target design plays a critical role in financial machine learning, often exceeding the impact of model complexity. By incorporating volatility structure into the labeling process, the proposed approach provides a more effective and realistic framework for extreme event detection in high-frequency cryptocurrency markets.

极端事件检测高频交易波动率建模比特币

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。