用自适应框架实时检测并修复数字孪生模型漂移,保障预测精度与可信度。
A Continual Validation, Updating, and Decision-Making Framework for Self-Adaptive Digital Twins via Robust Model Predictive Control: A Case Study in Additive Manufacturing

- 基于费舍尔得分检测模型漂移,触发精准参数更新
- 仅更新少于1%参数即恢复预测准确性和不确定性量化
- 支持工业场景中数字孪生的长期可靠运行,适合制造领域
数字孪生依赖代理模型实时映射物理系统,但随工况变化,模型可能出现概念漂移,导致性能下降。尤其在需捕捉随机不确定性时,如何持续保持模型准确性仍是难题。现有自适应框架缺乏对更新时机的合理判断、从有限流数据高效调整模型的能力,以及更新后性能提升的验证机制。本文提出一种集成鱼雷分数多变量漂移检测、低秩适配(LoRA)参数高效持续学习、以及曼-惠特尼U检验在线统计验证的自适应数字孪生框架。通过鱼雷分数向量监控代理模型置信度,在检测到漂移后仅对不足1%的模型参数进行针对性微调,并在部署前通过统计检验确认性能改善。在随机线性系统和定向能量沉积增材制造过程中的案例研究显示,该框架能快速识别分布偏移,并有效恢复预测精度与不确定性量化能力,适用于突发和渐进式漂移。结果证明了该方法在保证统计严谨性与计算效率方面的可行性,为神经网络驱动的数字孪生全生命周期可信维护提供了路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Digital Twins rely on surrogate models to mirror physical systems in real time, yet these models can degrade as operating conditions evolve, a phenomenon known as concept drift. Maintaining surrogate fidelity under drift, particularly when models must also capture aleatoric uncertainty, remains an open challenge. Existing adaptive frameworks lack principled mechanisms for detecting when updates are needed, for efficiently adapting models from limited streaming data, and for certifying that updates genuinely improve predictive performance. Here we present an adaptive Digital Twin framework that integrates a Fisher score--based multivariate drift detector, Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) for parameter-efficient continual learning, and a Mann--Whitney $U$ test for online statistical validation. The framework monitors surrogate-model confidence via Fisher score vectors, triggers targeted fine-tuning of fewer than 1% of model parameters upon drift detection, and statistically certifies predictive improvement before deploying the updated surrogate. Applied to a stochastic linear system and a directed energy deposition additive manufacturing process as case studies, the framework successfully detects distributional shifts with short delays and restores both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification under abrupt and incremental drift. These results establish a statistically rigorous and computationally tractable pathway for sustaining the trustworthiness of neural-network--based Digital Twins throughout their operational life cycle.
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