arXiv:2607.18748cs.LGcs.AI2026-07

用可解释概念生成时间序列反事实,让AI决策更可信

ConceptCF: Concept-based Counterfactuals for the Explainability of Time Series

论文配图:ConceptCF: Concept-based Counterfactuals for the Explainability of Time Series
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于时序分解提取尺度、频段等语义概念进行修改
  • 在五项指标上均优于现有方法,反事实更合理且变化小
  • 适合医疗、工业预测等高风险场景的模型可解释性分析

本文提出ConceptCF,一种基于人类可理解概念的反事实生成方法。在医疗和预测性维护等高风险领域,AI模型需依赖因果关系而非偶然关联。反事实解释通过最小改动改变模型预测。现有时间序列方法仅修改单点或子序列,难以保证可解释性。ConceptCF则直接操作有意义的概念,如通过时序分解得到的尺度与频段。利用遗传算法优化概念变异,生成可解释的反事实示例,例如“若运动幅度增大,模型预测将从‘行走’变为‘静止’”。在五种先进方法对比中,ConceptCF在有效性、置信度、接近度、稀疏性和合理性等指标上均表现领先。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper proposes ConceptCF, a method for counterfactual generation that operates on human-interpretable concepts. In high-stakes domains such as healthcare and predictive maintenance, artificial intelligence models can increase efficiency and safety. Explainability is key to ensure these models rely on causal relationships rather than spurious correlations. Counterfactual explanations identify minimal modifications that would change a model's predictions. Existing methods for time series operate on individual points or subsequences without ensuring interpretability of the mutations. ConceptCF instead modifies meaningful concepts. As a result we can provide explanations in terms of these concepts, for example ``the model's prediction would be `Sit' instead of `Walk' if you increase the scale of the movement''. In this paper, the concepts are constructed through time series decomposition, resulting in concepts such as scale, and frequency bands. Counterfactuals are generated using a genetic algorithm that optimizes the concept mutations. Evaluation against five state-of-the-art approaches demonstrates that ConceptCF consistently achieves top-tier performance across validity, confidence, proximity, sparsity and plausibility metrics.

可解释AI时间序列反事实生成

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