arXiv:2607.19147cs.LGcs.AI2026-07

用稀疏观测数据直接训练海洋模型,提升预测精度与泛化能力。

Incomplete Observations Boost Evolutionary Performance in Ocean Modeling

论文配图:Incomplete Observations Boost Evolutionary Performance in Ocean Modeling
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建生成状态空间模型,从稀疏噪声观测中学习海洋动态。
  • 在CMIP6和FY-3D数据上实现高保真重构与准确预测。
  • 适合需要真实世界观测数据的气候建模与地球系统研究者。

数据驱动方法已革新海洋建模,但现有方法依赖完整再分析数据集,带来计算瓶颈并限制模型性能。本文提出一种生成式状态空间模型与优化框架,可直接从稀疏、噪声观测中学习。该模型为连续状态空间的隐马尔可夫模型,将海洋物理量视为隐藏状态,观测数据作为观察值,统一表示海洋场与观测信息。初始状态与状态转移模块采用神经网络以捕捉复杂性与时间演化,发射模块设为掩码高斯分布。通过基于期望最大化(EM)算法的优化框架,交替使用朗之万动力学重建高保真海洋场,并优化神经网络以捕获时序演化。理论分析表明,该框架在生成模型下最大化观测似然。为提高效率,假设海洋状态演化服从平稳、遍历、马尔可夫随机过程,优化中仅采用长度为二的状态序列。在CMIP6模拟数据与FY-3D卫星数据上的实验表明,稀疏观测可直接提升模型对海洋状态动态的表征能力,为下一代地球系统模型从真实稀疏观测中学习提供了可扩展路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Data-driven methods have revolutionized ocean modeling, yet current approaches rely heavily on complete reanalysis datasets, imposing computational constraints and limiting model performance to that of the training data. Here, we present a generative state-space model and an optimization framework that enable learning directly from sparse and noisy observations. The model is essentially a hidden Markov model with a continuous state space, where oceanic physical quantities are treated as hidden states and measurements as observations, enabling a unified representation of ocean fields and observational data. Both the initial-state and state-transition modules are implemented as neural networks to capture the complexity and temporal evolution of ocean states, while the emission module is formulated as a masked Gaussian distribution. To train the model from sparse observations, we derive an optimization framework based on the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. The framework alternately reconstructs high-fidelity ocean fields via Langevin dynamics and optimizes deep neural networks to capture temporal evolution. Theoretical analysis shows that the framework maximizes the likelihood of observations under the generative model. For efficiency, we assume that ocean-state evolution follows a stationary, ergodic, and Markovian stochastic process and adopt only length-two state sequences during optimization. Experiments on CMIP6 simulation data and FY-3D satellite data demonstrate high-fidelity reconstruction and accurate prediction, showing that sparse observations can directly improve the model's representation of ocean-state dynamics. This work offers a scalable pathway for next-generation Earth system models to learn directly from sparse, incomplete real-world observations.

海洋建模生成模型稀疏观测

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。