M2Patch通过结构化潜空间提升多变量时间序列预测精度
Structured Latent Space Modeling over Multi-Scale Temporal Patches for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

- 用双正则化构建跨尺度一致的潜空间表示
- 在10个真实数据集上超越现有最优方法
- 适合需要鲁棒性和动态建模的时序分析场景
现有补丁与多尺度方法虽提升多变量时间序列预测性能,但将学习表征视为预测的临时产物,缺乏显式机制保证跨时间尺度的结构一致性。本文提出M2Patch,一种基于CNN的架构,通过两种互补的可微分惩罚项,将通道无关观测组织进结构化潜空间。多尺度补丁将输入分解为重叠的时间粒度,深度可分离卷积块以递增膨胀率提取线性复杂度的尺度特异性特征,各尺度的可学习投影将其压缩为紧凑潜表示。内部尺度平滑性惩罚强制相邻补丁间时间连续性,跨尺度对齐惩罚通过可学习映射恢复跨粒度交互,使所有尺度编码底层动态的相互一致表示。在十个真实世界基准数据集上的大量实验表明,M2Patch显著优于现有先进基线。进一步分析证实M2Patch具备结构感知识别能力:能恢复通道功能分组,并在补丁级输入扰动下保持鲁棒,说明结构化潜空间捕捉了数据内在动态。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Existing patching and multi-scale methods advance multivariate time series forecasting but treat learned representations as transient byproducts of prediction, lacking explicit mechanisms that enforce structural consistency across temporal scales. We propose M2Patch, a CNN-based architecture that organizes channel-independent observations into a structured latent space via two complementary differentiable penalties. Multi-scale patching decomposes the input into overlapping temporal granularities, depthwise separable CNN blocks with progressively growing dilation extracts scale-specific features at linear complexity, and per-scale learned projections compress these features into a compact latent representation. An intra-scale smoothness penalty enforces temporal continuity between adjacent patches, while an inter-scale alignment penalty restores cross-granularity interaction through learnable cross-scale mappings, so that all scales encode mutually consistent representations of the underlying dynamics. Extensive experiments on ten real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that M2Patch significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Further analyses establish M2Patch as a structure-aware recognizer: it recovers channel functional groupings and remains robust under patch-level input corruption, confirming that the structured latent space captures the data's intrinsic dynamics.
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