用图像和计数数据预测甜椒成熟果实数,提升农业产量预估精度。
Forecasting the Number of Harvest-ready Fruits of Sweet Peppers Using Multimodal Time-Series Data

- 融合图像特征与植物计数,用LSTM建模时间动态。
- 相比基线模型,误差降低33%~38%,比纯计数模型提升1.2%。
- 提供校准的置信度估计,适合实际种植决策参考。
在个体植株层面精确预测产量对精准农业和供应链规划至关重要,但同时包含视觉生长动态和每株测量标签的公开数据集稀缺。本文介绍一个全新的标注图像时序数据集,涵盖691株甜椒植物在两个生长季的监测数据,共4837张图像,并按成熟度分类记录每株果实数量。我们提出一种多模态深度学习框架,将DinoV3编码器提取的高维图像特征与数值计数测量融合。架构采用长短期记忆网络(LSTM)建模时间依赖性,能处理温室监测中常见的非规则采样间隔。定量实验表明,该多模态方法在2022年和2023年季节中分别比持续性基线降低33%和38%的均方根误差(RMSE),且相较仅使用测量值的模型平均再提升1.2%。此外,通过集成深度模型与高斯负对数似然(NLL)获得校准的不确定性估计,交叉季节评估下的不确定性校准误差(UCE)在0.39至0.89之间,为实际农业决策提供了可靠的置信信号。我们公开发布数据集与代码,以支持可复现研究并加速园艺作物数据驱动的产量预测方法发展。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate yield forecasting at the individual-plant level is critical for precision agriculture and supply-chain planning, yet public datasets capturing both visual growth dynamics and per-plant measurement labels are scarce. In this paper, we introduce a novel, annotated image time-series dataset of 691 sweet pepper plants monitored over two growing seasons, comprising 4837 images with per-plant fruit counts categorized by maturity. We propose a multimodal deep learning framework that fuses high-dimensional image features, extracted using the DinoV3 encoder, with numerical count measurements. Our architecture utilizes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to model temporal dependencies and handles irregular sampling intervals common in greenhouse monitoring. Through quantitative experiments, we demonstrate that this multimodal approach reduces RMSE over a persistence baseline by 33% and 38% in the 2022 and 2023 seasons, respectively, with a further 1.2% average gain over a measurement-only model. Furthermore, we employ Deep Ensembles and Gaussian Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) to provide calibrated uncertainty estimates, with an Uncertainty Calibration Error (UCE) ranging from 0.39 to 0.89 depending on the cross-season evaluation direction, offering a principled confidence signal for real-world agricultural decision-making. We release the dataset and code to support reproducible research and to accelerate development of data-driven yield forecasting methods for horticultural crops.
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