arXiv:2607.20349cs.CLcs.AI2026-07被引 1

AI生成小说泛滥,虽质量低却抢占市场,改变图书销售格局。

Generative AI floods and dilutes the market for books

论文配图:Generative AI floods and dilutes the market for books
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过检测1.4万本亚马逊自出版小说的AI文本占比,分析其销量趋势。
  • AI含量超25%的书占目录大半但销量小,却持续占据高排名位置。
  • 市场新增书籍速度远超收入增长,显示规模效应重塑创作生态。

生成式AI可近乎零成本产出长篇虚构作品。这些作品常被视作低质“垃圾”,被认为无商业影响力。我们通过对2023至2026年期间在亚马逊上销售的14,419本自出版类型小说进行全文AI检测,并匹配至2026年6月的日销量数据,发现其中无一标注是否含AI内容。结果显示,AI文本占比超过25%的书籍虽占目录较大份额,但销量占比更小;然而它们仍达到商业规模,随时间推移逐步占据更多畅销榜单席位,取代过去由非AI书籍占据的高位。在此期间,每季度有销售记录的书籍数量增长了19.2倍,而季度收入仅增长8.9倍,表明市场新增书籍速度超过收入增长,除少数品类外,每本售出书的平均收入持续下降。在AI渗透率高的类别中,无AI文本的书籍退步最明显,尤其在支持Kindle Unlimited的类别中。顶级畅销书中,高AI含量作品引用现有文本语言更具独特性,且与收入正相关——这一梯度在无AI书中未观测到。因此,生成式AI可通过规模而非质量重塑创意市场。研究结果直接回应版权侵权中的合理使用争议核心。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Generative AI can produce book-length works of fiction at near-zero cost. These books are often dismissed as low-quality ``slop'' that buyers will ignore, and are assumed to carry little commercial weight. We test that assumption with full-text AI detection across 14,419 self-published genre-fiction books sold on Amazon from 2023 to 2026, matched to daily sales records through June 2026. None of these books disclose whether or not they contain AI-produced content. We find that books for which we detected substantial AI text ($>$ 25\%) make up a large share of the catalog but a smaller share of sales. Even so, they reach commercial scale, winning a growing share of sales over time and taking more of the scarce top-rank positions once held by books with no detected AI text. Over this period, the number of books with observed sales in a quarter grew 19.2-fold, while quarterly revenue grew only 8.9-fold. The market therefore added selling books faster than it added revenue, and revenue per selling book fell across most genres. Books with no AI text lose the most ground in genres with high AI diffusion, and most of all where Kindle Unlimited availability is high. Among top-selling books, those with substantial AI text draw on more distinctive language from existing books than do books with no AI text; for these books overlap rises with revenue, a gradient we do not detect for books with no AI text. Generative AI can thus reshape a creative market through scale rather than quality. Our results bear directly on the market-effect question at the center of the fair use defense to copyright infringement.

生成式AI图书市场版权争议量化分析

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