用算法模型研究人类如何做取舍决策,揭示社会心理对选择的影响。
Algorithmic Approaches to Sequential Decision-Making and Social Epistemology

- 构建改进型多臂老虎机算法,给出近似最优解的理论边界。
- 证明少量样本即可学习出高效算法,支持数据驱动设计。
- 揭示悲观陷阱机制,提出可持续干预策略,适合社会科学与政策设计者。
人类在决策时常需权衡坚持与放弃。本文运用算法工具分析理论模型中的序列决策问题,探讨近似最优方法及社会与行为因素的影响。第一部分研究改进型多臂老虎机问题,给出一般情况下的近似匹配上下界;进一步在数据驱动算法设计框架下,证明多项式数量样本足以从算法类中学习到表现良好的算法。第二部分探讨社会认识论中的算法方法,首先分析理论模型在社会问题研究中的作用,接着研究投资型决策中的社会与行为影响:一是建立悲观陷阱的数学形式化模型,该现象指个体受前人影响而设定较低目标;二是分析坚毅性作为行为特质在雄心决策中的作用。整体工作旨在理论建模社会认识论现象,并提供可算法干预的框架。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
As humans, we face many decisions that require us to choose between sticking to something and giving up. This thesis uses algorithmic tools to derive insights about such decision-making problems in theoretical models, studying both near-optimal methods and outcomes of social and behavioral influences. Along the way, this thesis sheds light on what we gain and what we lose as we move from a messy and complex real world setting to a very general abstract model by studying various points along this spectrum. In Part I, we study algorithms for sequential decision-making in the improving multi-armed bandits problem. We provide nearly matching upper and lower bounds in the general case. Then, we then ask what is possible if we have access to similar instances to the one we wish to deploy our algorithm on. To that end, we provide guarantees in the data-driven algorithm design framework, showing that a polynomial number of samples is sufficient for learning good algorithms from a class of algorithms. In Part II, we study algorithmic approaches for problems in social epistemology. We start by analyzing what role theoretical models can play in the study of social problems. We then study social and behavioral influences in decision-making requiring investment. First, we provide mathematical formalism in which to study the formation of pessimism traps, a phenomenon identified by philosophers in which agents are influenced by their predecessors to engage in less-ambitious goals. We develop financial interventions to sustainably shift communities out of these traps. The second problem we study is the influence of grit as a behavioral trait in ambitious decision-making. Overall, these works seek to theoretically model phenomena in social epistemology and provide a framework for intervening algorithmically.
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